Asia Symposium 2026: Why the Middle-Power Moment Matters

Even as “uncertainty” has grown to become the buzzword in global politics this year, the future may well be insured by the 'Middle-Power Moment'

Professor Cheng-Chwee Kuik from the National University of Malaysia (UKM) stressed that not just in 2026, but in the foreseeable future, middle-power partnerships are likely to grow.

“There will be multiple issue-by-issue coalitions that will emerge among the middle powers. These will be formed in free, messy and fragmented ways, where coalitions will be multilayered, some unilateral, and sub-regional too,” he said.

Professor Cheng-Chwee was delivering the morning keynote, Middle Power Realignment in Trump 2.0: Converging Purposes, Competing Pathways, at the Asia Symposium 2026, hosted by the Asia New Zealand Foundation in partnership with The Asia Foundation in Wellington on Wednesday.

More than 150 people gathered for the day-long symposium at The Boatshed on Taranaki Street Wharf, bringing together some of the region’s sharpest minds for a series of timely foreign policy conversations. This year’s theme was Asia in Transition: The Middle Power Moment.

Cheng-Chwee, who is Professor of International Relations at the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies (IKMAS), UKM, set the stage for the day’s discussions by defining what constitutes a middle power. Image Credit - Asia New Zealand Foundation/AMC

Cheng-Chwee, who is Professor of International Relations at the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies (IKMAS), UKM, set the stage for the day’s discussions by defining what constitutes a middle power.

“These are fundamentally non-big powers with agency and a focus on three I’s – Initiative, Institutionalisation and Impact,” he said, explaining that these countries initiate movements rather than simply following larger powers, and have the capacity to institutionalise ideas and create real impact.

That idea resonated with remarks from Hone McGregor, Chairperson of the Board of Trustees at the Asia New Zealand Foundation.

Hone (in photo) said that in the current global environment, small and middle powers like New Zealand can play a critical role as bridge-builders, advocates for stability, and champions of cooperation over confrontation, even if they may, at times, feel squeezed, sidelined, and bereft of agency.

“Strategic competition between the United States and China has entered a more enduring, structural phase defined by technological rivalry, competing models of governance, and traditional power politics,” he said, adding that the regional balance is being tested not only in security terms, but also through trade, supply chains, data, and the race for innovation.

Thomas Parks, Vice President of The Asia Foundation, (in photo) echoed this in his introductory remarks, saying the international system is changing in profound ways.

He said that, in response to growing uncertainty, governments are actively diversifying their relationships.

“In 2025, Southeast Asian countries signed three times the average number of new free trade agreements,” he said, noting that Thailand is pursuing membership in both BRICS and the OECD, Vietnam has signed 11 comprehensive strategic partnerships, and Cambodia is hedging by expanding opportunities with China, the United States, and Japan.

He said this reflected declining confidence in the global multilateral system and growing confidence in regional partnerships.

But are all middle powers the same?

Cheng-Chwee classified them into two categories: the “shiny and established” and the “shy.”

“New Zealand and my home country, Malaysia, are the shy ones, compared to their shiny neighbours,” he said to an audience that erupted in laughter.

Still, Cheng-Chwee was quick to clarify that a middle-power moment does not mean these countries are coming together to gang up against bigger or smaller nations, nor that they are competing with major powers or ignoring other countries.

“Rather, the middle-power moment is all about collective self-help,” he said, sharing examples from Southeast Asia, New Zealand and Canada.

What was particularly interesting was Cheng-Chwee’s argument that middle-power cooperation is, in many ways, a response to uncertainty created by the major powers.

These partnerships, he suggested, act as a form of insurance against geopolitical uncertainty.

But, he cautioned, this works only in peacetime.

“No matter what you do, it is game over if it is wartime,” he said, explaining that middle powers create space for hedging, which is essentially about avoiding strategic overcommitment.

This also means countries can reduce the need for rigid alignment with formal alliances.

“We will also see multi-alignment and a multi-sector effect, where countries will enter into partnerships with different countries for different sectors,” he said, hinting at the rise of trade diversification and deeper economic cooperation.

The symposium also featured several other compelling panel discussions, including one on maritime security in the Indo-Pacific, which addressed the current Strait of Hormuz crisis and its wider implications.

Another panel, Future-Proofing Supply Chains in an Era of Protectionism, highlighted how preserving global supply chains has sharpened the focus on an important idea: in today’s world, shared vulnerability may matter more than shared values.

Experts also explored The Geopolitics of AI during a fireside chat, among several other topics.

You can find the details here.

The panels will be covered in greater detail in our articles over the coming days.

If the keynote was any indication, the message from Wellington was clear: in a world defined by uncertainty, middle powers are no longer just adapting to change — they may well be shaping what comes next.

Keep an eye out for more insights on what experts are predicting for middle powers, their economies, energy security, and the future of diplomacy.

 -Asia Media Centre

Banner Image - Professor Cheng-Chwee Kuik with Dr Julia Macdonald, Director of Research and Engagement at the Asia New Zealand Foundation at the Asia Symposium on Wednesday. Image Credit - Asia New Zealand Foundation/AMC