Winston Peters To Represent New Zealand at Manila ASEAN Summit

All eyes on Manila as the city hosts 20 world leaders for the 49th ASEAN Summit and East Asia Summit. (Photo: Carla Teng-Westergaard/AMC)

When Winston Peters lands in Manila on Monday, November 16, he will join a summit with an unusually heavy line-up of world leaders. With New Zealand’s government in caretaker mode following the November 7 election, the Foreign Minister will represent the country at the East Asia Summit, held alongside the 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay, meanwhile, travel to the APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Shenzhen, China, on November 18-19.

The arrangement was a long time settling. According to a reliable source who spoke to Asia Media Centre, Luxon, McClay and Peters had all applied for visas to attend the ASEAN meetings before New Zealanders went to the polls on November 7.

The Philippines confirmed Peters' attendance yesterday, November 12, but it was only today, November 13 that the Beehive officially announced it.

New Zealand is taking part under the caretaker convention. With official election results not due until November 27, Peters cannot announce major new commitments. His brief is to keep New Zealand's seat filled rather than to make news.

Why Manila, why now

The Philippines closes out its year as ASEAN chair under the theme "Navigating Our Future, Together," before handing the chairmanship to Singapore. Leaders gather at the Philippine International Convention Center in Pasay City, and organisers expect around 20 heads of state or government. The programme folds in the ASEAN Plus Three, the ASEAN–UN Summit and the 21st East Asia Summit, which Wellington describes as the region's premier forum for dialogue on political, strategic and economic issues.

The backdrop is a strained one. The region is still absorbing an energy shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, trade remains volatile, and tensions in the South China Sea have not eased. ASEAN itself has grown: Timor-Leste now sits at the table as its 11th member, while Myanmar will again send a career diplomat rather than its military leadership.

On the agenda:

The South China Sea Code of Conduct. A concluded code is unlikely at this summit, but the Philippines remains hopeful. ASEAN 2026 spokesperson Dominic Xavier Imperial said Manila also wants protections for countries outside the talks, "We are also pushing for the rights of third parties to be respected, even if they're not part of the negotiations," he said.

Energy and supply chains. After this year's fuel crisis, leaders are expected to issue statements on energy security, fuel stockpiling and critical minerals.

Trade and technology. Washington is seeking trade deals, wider regional uptake of American AI technology, and closer ties across Southeast Asia.

Myanmar and ASEAN unity. With the bloc still managing the junta's exclusion from top-level representation.

Transnational crime and online scams. Scam compounds, and the trafficking networks that staff them, have become one of the region's most pressing security problems. ASEAN interior and security ministers met in Manila in October to coordinate on cybercrime, human trafficking and online scams under the bloc's 2026–2035 plan of action on transnational crime, and the Philippines puts annual losses from the region's scam hubs at US$114 billion (NZ$205.63 billion approx).

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro said leaders will use the Manila summit to strengthen regional cooperation against online scams and human trafficking. Until now that cooperation has largely run through bilateral arrangements, and the bloc wants to widen it across Southeast Asia. In October, national anti-trafficking committees from 10 ASEAN members also agreed on a joint campaign against fake online job offers that lure people into scam compounds.

Foreign Affairs Assistant Secretary Dominic Xavier 'Dax' Imperial, spokesperson for ASEAN Affairs, addresses the media on Friday, November 13, 2026 at the International Media Centre. (Photo: Carla Teng-Westergaard/AMC)

Washington's bet on ASEAN

The clearest sign of Manila’s weight is who is coming. Malacañang has confirmed that US President Donald Trump will attend, though he will be one of the last to arrive. Trump is due in Manila on Tuesday, November 17, after most of ASEAN’s other dialogue partners, and leaves the following day.

Organisers say the summit will not be rearranged around him, even though he is expected to land only minutes before proceedings close. “Regarding the program, nothing will be pushed back. We will proceed as planned with regard to the preparations especially on the closing ceremony,” Imperial said.

“The day will culminate with the ASEAN-US Special Summit. So the Summit will still take place despite the late arrival of President Trump,” he added.

From Manila, Trump flies on to Shenzhen for APEC, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping. Xi himself is expected to skip Manila, with Premier Li Qiang representing China. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Canada’s Mark Carney and Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are also on the guest list.

The trip is Trump's first overseas outing since Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the midterms on November 3.

Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) expect him to use it to show he still sets the course of American foreign policy, and to project strength in a region where US staying power is constantly questioned.

That Washington is putting its chips on Manila rather than Shenzhen is telling. CSIS's Victor Cha put it bluntly: "the stop we should really be watching is ASEAN." In his reading, the Trump–Xi meeting at APEC will be short and routine, likely extending the existing truce on tariffs and critical minerals, with the substantive bargaining saved for the G20 in Miami. Manila, by contrast, is where the US hopes to lock in trade deals and win ASEAN commitments to align with the American AI stack, with development assistance as the sweetener.

It is a reason some experts now argue the ASEAN Summit in Manila is "more consequential" than this year's APEC, which is expected to be brief and low on expectations.

Not every analyst frames it as a contest. An AFP preview of the week treats the two summits as parts of one diplomatic sequence: Manila centred on the South China Sea and trade, Shenzhen the venue for AI talks and a possible meeting between Trump, Xi, and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Analysts quoted there urge low expectations at both. Brookings' Ryan Hass expects the symbolism of any Xi–Trump–Putin meeting to count for as much as its substance, with agreement on broad principles but no follow-up commitments. Siew Mun Tang, former head of the ASEAN Studies Centre at Singapore's ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, said the region would not treat Trump as a lame duck after the midterms, noting he still has two years left in office.

Not everything will land. Stephen Olson of ISEAS expects only limited tariff relief for Southeast Asian exporters. And the signing of Pax Silica's Economic Security Zone in New Clark City, part of a US-led supply-chain coalition the Philippines joined in April, has been moved to a separate ceremony later in the year, leaving Trump without a headline deliverable in Manila.

According to ASEAN organisers, Trump is scheduled to arrive in the Philippines at 5:30 pm on Tuesday, while the closing ceremony of the ASEAN Summit will end at 5:45 pm.

Marcos at the centre, and the Quad in town

For host President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the summit is a showcase. ASEAN 2026 spokesperson Dominic Xavier Imperial has confirmed today that Marcos will hold a bilateral meeting with Trump, as well as with four other leaders: those of Australia, Brazil, Japan and South Korea. Meetings with the leaders of India and Laos, and with Guterres, are still being finalised.

Manila will also host a full Quad leaders' summit, with India's Narendra Modi joining Trump, Japan's Sanae Takaichi and Australia's Anthony Albanese. It will be the first Quad leaders' meeting of Trump's second administration, and the first since September 2024, when Joe Biden was in the White House. The setting carries symbolism: it was on the sidelines of the 2017 ASEAN Summit in Manila, in Trump's first term, that officials from the four countries met to revive the grouping. CSIS's Gregory Poling expects Trump's bilateral with Marcos and the Quad meeting to be the real focus of the American visit, with major trade signings more likely at the G20.

New Zealand is not a Quad member. But a Quad leaders' meeting in Southeast Asia, convened as the region debates the South China Sea, supply chains and technology alignment, shapes the strategic environment New Zealand operates in. Being in the room in Manila means hearing that conversation first-hand rather than reading about it afterwards.

Why New Zealand cannot afford an empty chair

It would be easy to assume that a country without a newly formed government should sit this one out. The case for going is stronger than it looks.

New Zealand is a founding member of the East Asia Summit. In a forum that rewards long relationships and consistent presence, absence is noticed. With the Prime Minister committed to APEC in China, New Zealand's largest trading partner, sending its most senior foreign affairs figure to Manila keeps both tracks covered.

New Zealand also has existing commitments to protect. It signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with ASEAN in 2025 and a Comprehensive Partnership with the Philippines in July 2026. The latter covers education and geothermal energy, while opening discussions on the Philippines’ accession to the CPTPP. These are relationships that need nurturing, regardless of who forms the next government.

On energy security is a domestic issue. New Zealand relies on refined fuel from Asian refineries. After a year in which the Hormuz closure exposed how fragile those supply chains are, ASEAN discussions on fuel stockpiling and energy security bear directly on prices at New Zealand petrol stations.

On trade talks. The upgraded ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Area ties New Zealand's exporters to the region's growth. Any shift in how ASEAN responds to US tariff pressure or technology demands will ripple through to those exporters.

Furthermore, being in the room with Trump, the Quad and a host of major leaders in Manila, the summit offers an early read on where US–ASEAN relations, and US–China competition, are heading. A caretaker minister may not be able to sign new deals, but he can listen, build relationships and report back to whichever government takes office.

On July, Foreign Minister Winston Peters attended the ASEAN 59th Foreign Ministers Meeting in Manila where he signed the Comprehensive Partnership with the Philippines. (Photo: Carla Teng-Westergaard/AMC)

A familiar face, limited room

Peters knows these meetings well. He has served as Foreign Minister three times, from 2005 to 2008, 2017 to 2020 and since 2023, and has dealt with ASEAN counterparts on Myanmar, the South China Sea and the bloc's relations with Washington and Beijing.

That familiarity helps, but it does not change the constraints. Until the election result is confirmed and a government is formed, New Zealand can listen, signal continuity and keep relationships ticking over, but not much more.

When he arrives on Monday, the job is to keep New Zealand visible and report back to whichever government takes office.

-Asia Media Centre