Manila 2026: What's at Stake at the 49th ASEAN Summit

Around 20 heads of state and government are expected to converge in Manila for the ASEAN Summit, marking the final stretch of the Philippines’ chairmanship before it hands over the rotating leadership to Singapore. (Photo: ASEAN)

A high-stakes week in Manila

When leaders gather at the newly restored Philippine International Convention Center from 16 to 18 November, the Philippines will close out a year as ASEAN Chair under the theme "Navigating Our Future, Together." The 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits, including the ASEAN Plus Three, the ASEAN–UN Summit and the 21st East Asia Summit (EAS), arrive at a moment of unusual strain: an energy shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, volatile global trade, and persistent tension in the South China Sea. Organisers expect around 20 heads of state and government, and Manila has declared special non-working days across the capital.

Who is coming

The headline guest is US President Donald Trump, whose attendance Malacañang confirmed in October. He is due in Manila on 16 November before flying to Shenzhen for APEC, where a meeting with Xi Jinping is expected. That sequencing matters: Manila becomes the curtain-raiser for the year's most consequential bilateral encounter.

Xi himself is expected to skip Manila, with Premier Li Qiang representing China, as he did in Kuala Lumpur last year. UN Secretary-General António Guterres will attend for the ASEAN–UN Summit. President Marcos has also invited guests beyond the usual circle: Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, fresh from winning a fourth term, are confirmed. Lula's visit coincides with 80 years of Brazil–Philippines ties.

All ASEAN members, now 11 with Timor-Leste, are expected, although Myanmar will again be represented by a career diplomat rather than its military leadership. India's Narendra Modi has been invited but had not confirmed, and the Philippines was still awaiting formal notification from several dialogue partners in the Plus Three and EAS formats.

Russia's Vladimir Putin is the biggest question mark. Marcos personally invited him to the East Asia Summit when the two met in Kazan in June, which would make it Putin's first visit to the Philippines. Moscow has not confirmed, however, and Putin has attended the EAS only once, in Singapore in 2018. Russia has usually sent senior officials instead, and is likely to do so again.

What to watch

First, the South China Sea. Manila has made progress on a Code of Conduct a defining goal of its chairship, but a binding outcome remains unlikely, and the Philippines will want strong language on international law without fracturing ASEAN consensus.

Second, energy and supply-chain resilience. After this year's fuel crisis, expect statements on regional energy security, fuel stockpiling and critical minerals.

Third, great-power choreography. With Trump present and Xi absent, ASEAN will try to show it remains the region's convenor rather than a stage for US–China rivalry. Trump's bilateral meetings and any trade announcements will draw most of the attention.

Notably, Washington appears to see Manila, not Shenzhen, as the more consequential stop. Briefing reporters on November 9, CSIS's Victor Cha said that "the stop we should really be watching is ASEAN." He explained that the administration hopes to secure trade deals there and to win current or future commitments from ASEAN countries to align with the US AI technology stack, using development assistance as an incentive, commercial diplomacy in its purest form.

By contrast, Cha said the White House has been playing down the Trump–Xi meeting at APEC as a short, routine visit, likely to extend the uneasy tariff and critical-minerals truce, with the more substantive US–China talks expected at the G20 in Miami three weeks later.

Fourth, the midterm factor. Manila will be Trump's first overseas trip since Democrats secured major victories in the November 3 US midterm elections, taking control of both chambers of Congress.

The US midterm elections sent shockwaves through the Trump administration, as a so-called “blue tsunami” swept Democrats into control of both chambers of Congress. (Photo: AMC file)

The new Congress is not sworn in until January, so nothing changes legally before the summit, but perceptions shift straight away.

CSIS's Edgard Kagan, a former US ambassador to Malaysia, says presidents typically use post-midterm trips to show foreign leaders they still control foreign policy, and expects Trump to project that he has not been weakened. Regional leaders are mainly asking whether the trade and investment deals struck under Trump will hold once Congress is more powerful.

On trade, ISEAS's Stephen Olson expects only limited relief for Southeast Asian exporters: Congress may push for tariff carve-outs, but is unlikely to reverse the broader agenda. Expect Trump's Manila messaging to stress strength and deal-making rather than retreat.

Fifth, Pax Silica - and what it won't be. Pax Silica is a US-led coalition, launched in December 2025, to build secure supply chains for semiconductors, critical minerals and AI infrastructure among allies, largely to reduce reliance on China.

The Philippines joined as its 13th signatory in April, alongside Australia, Japan, Singapore and others, and agreed to host a 4,000-acre "Economic Security Zone" in New Clark City, Tarlac, billed as the network's first AI-native industrial hub.

A signing of the zone's legal framework had reportedly been eyed for Trump's visit, but US Ambassador Lee Lipton has said no such announcement was ever planned, and the Trade Department now expects to sign by year-end at a separate ceremony so it does not overshadow ASEAN's own agenda.

The project has also drawn growing domestic opposition, though officials say that is not the reason for the delay. That leaves Trump without a headline deliverable in Manila, unlike last year's Thailand–Cambodia peace deal in Kuala Lumpur. CSIS's Gregory Poling expects the real focus to be Trump's bilateral with Marcos and a Quad leaders' meeting on the sidelines, with any major trade signings, such as with Vietnam, more likely at the G20 in Miami.

Implications for New Zealand

The timing is awkward for Wellington. New Zealand's November 7 election produced a knife-edge result, and Christopher Luxon now leads a caretaker government until official results are released on November 27. Whoever represents New Zealand in Manila will be constrained by caretaker conventions and unable to announce major new commitments. Yet showing up still matters. New Zealand is a founding EAS member, and attendance at ASEAN leaders' meetings has become an expectation of any New Zealand prime minister.

The substance is already in place. New Zealand upgraded its relationship with ASEAN to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2025 and, in July this year, elevated ties with the Philippines to a Comprehensive Partnership, marking 60 years of diplomatic relations. That agreement covers education and geothermal energy and launched preparatory discussions on the Philippines joining the CPTPP, a trade pact where New Zealand is a depositary and a natural champion.

New Zealand officials may still attend the 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits, although their participation is likely to be driven more by diplomatic visibility and maintaining regional engagement than by the pursuit of new deals or agreements.Photo: Carla Teng-Westergaard)

Economically, the upgraded ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Area and New Zealand's growing reliance on refined fuel from Asian refineries make regional energy-security discussions directly relevant to Kiwi households. Strategically, Manila offers a chance to reinforce New Zealand's case for ASEAN centrality, its role as a bridge between Southeast Asia and the Pacific, and its interest in a calmer US–China relationship.

For New Zealand, then, this is a summit about continuity: holding its seat at the table during political limbo, and signalling that its Southeast Asia commitments will outlast the election count.

 -Asia Media Centre