Joining ASEAN: Timor-Leste’s Long Journey To The Table

This October, Asia’s youngest country marks a long awaited milestone.  At the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Timor-Leste will officially become the 11th member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Timor-Leste’s journey to ASEAN began in 2011, when it first applied to join the bloc. At that stage it had only been an independent nation for just under a decade. There were many hoops to jump through and criteria to meet before any serious consideration could be given.  11 years later it was granted ‘observer status’ allowing it to participate in meetings and summits, while still working towards full membership.

With a population of just 1.4 million, joining ASEAN is more than symbolic recognition. It is an affirmation of identity, a signal of hope, and a chance to step into a regional community which promises a myriad of opportunities.

But will it be the silver bullet the country needs?

I know very little about the needs of a developing nation, but during my year here I have had the privilege of listening to many local people; domestic workers, stall holders, government staff, business people, ex-pats and of course the President, Nobel Laureate José Ramos-Horta.

Anna with President José Ramos-Horta. Image credits - Anna/amc

Like Kiwis, all the Timorese want is an opportunity to provide for their families and get ahead. They want to be able to educate their children, have food security, access to clean water, and have a reliable health system. All things Ramos-Horta wants for them too and quite rightly says are ‘not outlandish, these are normal today.’

Joining ASEAN may go a long way in meeting those needs.  Membership means access to millions of people across the ASEAN region and the chance to attract investment, build much needed infrastructure, and accelerate development which of course translates to more work, better paid jobs, better living conditions and more opportunity.

For ASEAN, admitting one of the poorest nations in the world into its fold is an act of inclusivity, which happens to be the theme of Malaysia's 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship. According to their website “It reflects our aspiration for truly shared progress, ensuring that no one is left behind.”

Like Kiwis, all the Timorese want is an opportunity to provide for their families and get ahead. Image credits - Anna/AMC

The Economic Challenge

Timor-Leste has an economy heavily dependent on oil and gas – 90 percent of its exports ($135m approx.). The Petroleum Fund finances most public spending,  however according to the latest World Bank report, unless reforms are made and there’s more development and diversification, that fund will run dry by 2035.

International partners have been central to Timor-Leste’s preparation to join the ASEAN coalition. The Asian Development Bank has been assisting the country since 2012 and has committed more than US$755 million (US$615 million in loans and US$140 million in grants) to critical infrastructure projects like transport, water, urban development, energy, and agriculture and helping out with technical and advisory services.

The island is blessed with natural beauty.... Image credits - Anna/amc

ADB Country Director Stefania Dina, says joining ASEAN will give Timor-Leste access to a dynamic regional market of over 650 million people with a combined GDP exceeding US$3 trillion.

 “Timor-Leste's accession is expected to boost regional integration, attract investment, stimulate exports, and create new opportunities in trade and tourism,” explains Dina. She adds “it will also provide access to regional networks, technology, and best practices that can accelerate reforms and competitiveness.”

ADB’s flagship project is the US$135 million expansion of Dili’s Nicolau Lobato International Airport.  A new airport will certainly go a way in boosting trade and tourism. 

While coffee (US$19.1m) is Timor-Leste’s second largest export, tourism has also been identified as another possible earner. 

The island is blessed with natural beauty, cultural heritage and a rich history, as well as offering diverse marine life and vibrant coral reefs, perfect for diving (just watch out for the crocodiles!). Unfortunately, it is also succumbing to the now widespread and rapidly growing plastic waste issue affecting much of Asia. 

The rapidly growing plastic waste issue. Image credits - Anna/amc

The World Bank highlights job creation as the most effective path out of poverty, emphasizing investment in women and youth. Interesting to note, Timor-Leste has one of the youngest populations in Asia, something noted by ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn at a recent summit. “Timor-Leste’s youthful population—full of energy, talent, and aspiration—will play a vital role in shaping ASEAN’s future.”

Timor-Leste’s youthful population—full of energy, talent, and aspiration—will play a vital role in shaping ASEAN’s future. Image credits - Anna/amc

An historic step, but not without critics

To secure membership, Timor-Leste has had to ratify 84 ASEAN agreements and undergo rigorous assessments. Critics have voiced concerns over a number of issues.  First, with a GDP per capita of around US$1,341, Timor-Leste sits at the very bottom of ASEAN’s economic ladder. That begs the question; will the burden of integration and support fall on wealthier member states and partners like Australia, Japan, and the EU.

With a GDP per capita of around US$1,341, Timor-Leste sits at the very bottom of ASEAN’s economic ladder. Image credits - Anna/amc

The second concern raised around Timor-Leste’s ASEAN admission is how it could expose institutional weakness within the coalition. The membership follows a fairly rigid consensus-building process and with Timor-Leste’s underdeveloped admin systems and diplomatic capacity, that could affect the speed in which decisions are made.

The third issue is around China. Timor-Leste has benefited from Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, including new hospitals and roads. If Dili leans too far toward Beijing, internal tensions within ASEAN could flare—particularly over disputes in the South China Sea.

Ramos-Horta has very strong views around Timor-Leste’s relationship with China. “Timor Leste is a country that for too many years suffered the humiliation of being poor, weak and was invaded, occupied and exploited by Western powers, it demands respect, it does not welcome lectures on human rights and democracy by the West.” He adds that Chinese support to his country has been transparent. “There is too much misinformation about China and the so-called "debt trap". In reality 80% of the world's debt is owed to Western banks.” Furthermore Ramos-Horta says Timor-Leste benefits from Chinese traders and businesses. “Lower prices, they employ Timorese, provide space for Timorese to watch and absorb Chinese lessons in hard work, work discipline, and productivity.”

They want to be able to educate their children, have food security, access to clean water, and have a reliable health system. Image credits - Anna/amc

His Excellency Dr José Ramos-Horta – The Peacemaker

ASEAN has had its issues presenting a united front on issues like the South China Sea and the ongoing crisis on Myanmar. This is where Timor-Leste’s Nobel Peace Prize winner believes he can help.

No one is more practiced in the art of diplomacy than Ramos-Horta. In 1996 he became a Nobel Laureate for his lifelong fight for independence, and has been at the heart of his country’s journey into ASEAN.  He says the coalition has been facing challenges within its member states, and it must unite.

  “We want to help with that, because if we don’t address our differences in amicable way, we lose credibility as an organisation.” Ramos-Horta believes ASEAN must be a bridge between global powers. “We have to stay united, and be a bridge between China and the US, between Australia and China, without taking sides.”

On Myanmar, however he is blunt. “I know more about Myanmar than any Asian, Australian, European or American leader,” he says. “I would be diplomatic, respectful of Asian leaders but I would know how to push the process faster, to end the war, the torture, the imprisonment, and execution of people.” But he insists he is not interested in preaching democracy.

The 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia begins on October 26th.

-Asia Media Centre