OTR: Japan’s revolving door politics spins again as Ishiba bows out

Come October, Japan will choose its fourth PM in five years.

On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced that he would step down in response to mounting pressure within his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Ishiba has stepped down after less than a year in office, following two major election defeats that left his LDP without a majority in either house of parliament. According to the BBC, his colleagues were preparing to vote him out, so his resignation came before the inevitable.

Ishiba’s downfall is quick but not unusual in Japan. As Al Jazeera reported, many inside the LDP felt he was too soft on China and struggled to manage relations with the United States. For voters, the bigger issue was the rising cost of living. Prices have gone up, wages have not kept pace, and a weaker yen has made people feel poorer.

According to reports, part of Ishiba’s trouble was his decision to call a snap election soon after becoming prime minister in 2024. He said it was important for the people to judge his government. They did - handing the LDP its worst result in over a decade. When the party was defeated again in July’s upper house election, Ishiba’s position became impossible to defend.

Ishiba with Trump in the East Room earlier in 2025. Image sourced from wikimedia/amc

He stayed on long enough to finalise a trade deal with Washington. As Al Jazeera noted, Donald Trump signed an order to cut tariffs on Japanese car imports from 27.5 percent to 15 percent. With that secured, Ishiba said it was time to “pass the baton.”

Who next?

The race to succeed him is already taking shape.

Shinjiro Koizumi, the agriculture minister and son of a popular former PM, is seen as a fresh and media-friendly option. Sanae Takaichi, a staunch conservative, would be Japan’s first woman prime minister if elected.

Yoshimasa Hayashi (in photo, sourced from wikimedia/amc) the experienced chief cabinet secretary, offers steadiness and experience but less flair. The choice is between a hardliner, a rising political heir, and a safe pair of hands.

Will Japan soon have its first woman PM?

According to media reports, Takaichi launched a bid last week to become the first woman prime minister, pledging state spending and targeted tax relief as part of a master plan for growth that aims to double the economy within 10 years.

She and Koizumi (in photo, sourced from wikimedia/amc) are seen as frontrunners in the race to lead the LDP.

Last year, Takaichi narrowly lost to outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in the runoff round of the LDP leadership race.

The Japan Times reported that if Takaichi wins both party and parliamentary votes, she will make history as Japan’s first female prime minister. For a country that has seen limited progress on gender equality, especially in politics, that could represent a watershed moment.

Takaichi, who has described former U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as a role model, is running for the LDP presidency for the third time, following bids in 2021 and 2024.

Nikkei Asia reported that in a Nikkei and TV Tokyo poll conducted from August 29 to August 31, she topped the list as the most suitable candidate to be the next prime minister, garnering 23% support. Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi came in second with 22%. However, when the poll was limited to LDP supporters, Koizumi received 32% while Takaichi garnered only 17%, representing a significant gap.

Interestingly, the Japan Times also referred to the phenomenon of the “glass cliff” phenomenon, which some experts say is why she will be appointed. This phenomenon is when women are elevated to leadership roles during times of crisis, when the risk of failure is high.

The challenges ahead

 Whoever takes over faces tough challenges. Inflation has squeezed households, the yen is weak, and relations with neighbours are tense. Last week, Xi Jinping hosted Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un in Beijing, a show of solidarity that underscored Japan’s security worries. Relations with Washington also remain tricky, with Trump demanding Tokyo pay more for hosting US troops.

The bigger picture is one of constant churn. Japan has seen more than ten prime ministers in two decades. In a system dominated by the LDP, leaders often fall not to the opposition but to rival factions within their own party. Ishiba is the latest casualty of those battles.

In October, Japan will once again turn to a new leader. The question is whether this prime minister will be able to last, or whether the revolving door at the top will keep spinning.

-Asia Media Centre