OTR: China's Pacific Missile Test - Regional Reactions and Expert Analysis

The South Pacific has long defined itself as a nuclear-free region. This week, it became the site of China's latest strategic missile test.

China launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean on Monday, describing it as a routine military exercise. According to China's state news agency Xinhua, the missile was launched by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy and landed in designated international waters.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said relevant countries had been notified in advance and urged observers not to "over-interpret" the exercise. Governments across the region, however, responded with concern, with several describing the launch as inconsistent with regional peace and stability.

The test also drew attention because it took place in the wider South Pacific, home to the Treaty of Rarotonga, which established the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone. China ratified the treaty in 1987. While the treaty prohibits the stationing and testing of nuclear explosive devices within the zone, the missile carried a non-nuclear dummy warhead.

Regional reactions

China said the launch was a routine military exercise and “not directed against any specific country or target”, with its foreign ministry saying relevant countries had been notified and urging others not to “over-interpret” the test.

The response across the region, however, was sharply critical. According to a report by Reuters, Pacific regional powers Australia, New Zealand and Japan were ​given only a short period of advance notice about the test, which coincided with the signing in Fiji of a mutual defence pact between that island nation and ​Australia.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters described the launch as “deeply concerning” and said China’s testing of nuclear-capable weapons into the South Pacific was not consistent with regional stability.

The New Zealand government also said it was informed of the planned launch within hours of it taking place.

“New Zealand considers this an unwelcome and concerning development. We, like our neighbours in other ‌Pacific countries, have no interest in China using the South Pacific as a testing site for missile capability,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters said in a statement.

Australia also condemned the test, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese calling it “provocative” and saying it destabilised the region, while Foreign Minister Penny confirmed that China had notified the government of plans to conduct a sea-based missile test into the Pacific but said the action was “destabilising” to the region.

“Australia has been clear that this proposed test is in the context of a rapid military build-up by China, which is lacking in the transparency and reassurance as to intent that the region expects,” Wong told reporters at a news conference in the Fijian capital, Suva.

The US State Department urged China to “engage in meaningful arms control discussions and commit to a regularised notification arrangement for all intercontinental-range ballistic missile and space launches”.

Pacific Media Network reported Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale also criticised the missile test despite his country's close relationship with Beijing, saying he had formally raised the issue with China's Ambassador during Albanese's visit to Honiara."China is a good friend of Solomon Islands. But this is not something a friend does. We don't want to see any more countries - China, America, anybody - testing their ICBMs in the Pacific Islands region. That's the bottom line: be our friend but don't threaten us," Wale said.

Kiribati has reinforced that message, saying Pacific nations must remain united behind the region's long-standing vision of an Ocean of Peace rather than allowing major powers to dictate the regional security agenda.

Expert analysis

Julia Macdonald

Director, Research and Engagement, Asia New Zealand Foundation

On Monday afternoon at 4.01pm NZT, China tested a JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile in the South Pacific, landing between Tonga and Nauru. This follows an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test in the South Pacific in 2024, and a Chinese naval task force transit through the Tasman Sea in February last year.

The Chinese response was that these are routine tests, part of China's annual military training programme, and were "not directed against any specific country or target". It appears Japan, Australia and New Zealand were warned shortly before the test took place.

Routine or not, this pattern reveals that Beijing is increasingly willing to display its growing strategic nuclear capabilities openly and more regularly.

Since the 2024 missile was an ICBM, and this is a submarine-launched ballistic missile, we might expect to see China test an air-launched ballistic missile in the future to demonstrate the credibility of its nuclear triad (land, sea and air-based systems).

In terms of broader political signalling, this is harder to know with certainty, and it is possible there were multiple intended audiences. It is unlikely, however, that the test was a direct response to the Australia-Fiji mutual defence treaty despite it having been signed just hours earlier. Weather and other technical considerations that factor into missile tests make this unlikely.

Since the US was apparently not forewarned of the test, it seems more likely the launch was intended to signal China's concerns over the US-led RIMPAC exercise taking place in the Pacific.

It is also worth noting that nuclear powers also test strategic ballistic missiles semi-regularly to make sure they work – the US, UK, Russia, France and India have carried out similar tests in the past few years. China has historically been more restrained but appears to be moving into a new phase as its arsenal grows.

Regardless of the intent behind the test, as China's nuclear and missile forces continue to grow, and as Beijing transitions to an all-nuclear submarine fleet, we should expect to see China testing its new capabilities more frequently.

David Capie

Professor of International Relations, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand

China's test-firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) into the southwest Pacific on 6 July is a concerning development, and one that will be unwelcome across the region. Historically, Beijing has largely tested its missiles within its own borders, but following an ICBM test into the Pacific in late 2024, this latest test suggests an emerging pattern. It is a reminder that, as part of a broader military build-up, China is significantly expanding its nuclear forces. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has concluded that China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the USA by the turn of the decade, even if it holds a much smaller number of warheads.

The response from Australia, New Zealand and Japan has been unsurprisingly critical. More interesting have been the responses from Pacific states. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale lodged a formal protest, saying, "China is a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does." Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape appealed to "our Chinese friends that this be the last such missile test conducted in Pacific waters," adding that the same message applied to any nation with military capability. At the time of writing, the Pacific Islands Forum was reportedly drafting a joint statement expressing members' concerns.

The Asia New Zealand Foundation's 2026 Perceptions of Asia polling showed a slight warming of New Zealanders' views towards China, following a slump caused by PLA live-fire exercises in the Tasman in 2025 and China’s strategic partnership with Cook Islands. Whatever benefits the People's Liberation Army might gain from the missile test, it will do little for China's image among the New Zealand public.

-Asia Media Centre