Xi & Trump : What Just Happened ?

The meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the margins of this week’s APEC meeting in South Korea was their first in-person dialogue since 2019.

Trump arrived in South Korea predictably emphasising his intent to secure a deal: “I think we’re going to have a deal… I think it will be a good deal for both,” he told reporters ahead of the meeting. CBS News+1 Meanwhile, in prior press comments both sides flagged issues such as tariffs, rare-earth export controls, soybean purchases, and issues of national economic security as central to the agenda.

A few of the major agenda items included:

·         Rare-earths export controls: China’s restrictions on rare‐earth mineral technologies had been a major sticking point; after the meeting Trump declared the rare-earths issue “roadblock is gone”. Well, gone for a year perhaps as the agreement is only a 12 month one.

·         Tariffs & trade deal framework: The U.S. had threatened steep tariffs on Chinese goods; ahead of the meeting Trump suggested tariffs could be reduced in exchange for commitments from China.

·         Agriculture & soybeans: China’s purchase of U.S. agricultural goods, especially soybeans, was cited as part of the goodwill gesture and part of the negotiation. This move is of huge significance to the rural Trump supporters across the Midwest of the US/

·         Broader strategic issues: Beyond trade, topics such as the war in Ukraine, AI competition, and global supply chains were referenced in pre-meeting briefings.

While no detailed, fully-ratified agreement was publicly unveiled at the meeting itself, both leaders described the session positively. Trump labelled the discussions a “great success” and rated the meeting high on his own scale of outcomes.

Why It Matters

The U.S.-China relationship is arguably among the most consequential in the world — economically, politically and strategically. There are implications for global trade, technology supply-chains, regional stability (especially in Asia) and investor confidence.

The meeting shows both sides are at least publicly inclined to engage rather than simply escalate. That dynamic alone helps calm some market jitters and may open the door for incremental progress on thorny issues, depending on the ability of the Trump administration  to follow through in appropriate manner.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the positive tone, many obstacles remain. Analysts caution that personal chemistry (which President Trump often emphasises) may be less important than structural mismatches of interest. As one expert noted:

“I’ve never encountered anyone as cold-blooded in their calculations … as Xi Jinping … he’s not easily swayed by charm.” The Star

The lack of a fully detailed public agreement means that follow-through will matter far more than the TV coverage of the two leaders shaking hands, and as we have seen, Donald Trump can backtrack on policy seemingly without a second thought.

The two sides committed to further diplomacy in 2026, with Trump planning to go to China in April and Xi to visit the US sometime later.

Perhaps the APEC meeting was more like the end of a boxing round, with both sides heading back to their corner to consider on-going strategy. The adversarial relationship remains, the situation seems only slightly more stable.

What Was Agreed ?

The US will cancel the 10% “fentanyl tariffs” and suspend, for an additional year, the 24% reciprocal tariffs levied on Chinese goods, including goods from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region. China will adjust its current countermeasures against the  US tariffs

The US will suspend for one year the implementation of a new rule announced on Sept. 29 that expands its “entity-list” export restrictions to any entity that is at least 50 percent owned by one or more entities on the list. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on Oct. 9 for one year.

The US will suspend the implementation of measures under its Section 301 investigation targeting China’s maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year. In response, China will suspend its countermeasures.

In addition, the two sides also reached consensus on issues including anti-drug cooperation on fentanyl, and expanding agricultural trade,.

 The deal does not appear to be a full, legally bound treaty at this stage — many of the commitments are described as frameworks or understandings, not fully formalised contracts.

 Key strategic issues remain largely unaddressed: for example, high-technology export controls (eg, advanced semiconductors), specific timelines for announced rare‐earth export commitments, and the ever-present Taiwan/China military and security issues.

Asia Media Centre