Victory in Korea For The "Fresh Start" Candidate

A “brawler”, a “pro-China toady”, a “dangerous demagogue” or a “centrist conservative”?  All of these epithets have been used to describe South Korea’s new President Lee Jae Myung, who won yesterday’s election by a clear margin (49.4% to 41.1%) over conservative Kim Moon-Soo.

Lee’s victory shifts Korea sharply to the left, joining Australia and Canada as important regional friends of New Zealand who have chosen progressive governments this year.

Japan’s conservative coalition also faces a challenging Upper House vote next month.   All these elections are taking place amid shared economic and security concerns partly caused by erratic and destabilizing US leadership.

President Lee faces at least three substantial challenges.

His first task will be to restore faith in government and the democratic process itself.  Lee’s path to the presidency was facilitated – some would say gifted – by the fiasco of his predecessor Yoon Suk-Yeol who, in a moment of political madness, declared martial law late at night on December 3 (six months to the day before yesterday’s election) only to reverse the order six hours later. 

Yoon’s justification – that he needed to save the country from North Korean sympathizers and communists – was widely derided.  He was rapidly impeached and removed from office but retained to the end the passionate support of many supporters. 

While a majority of Koreans deplored Yoon’s actions, the failure of the conservative People’s  Power Party (PPP) to unite around a strong alternative candidate cemented Lee’s victory. 

Lee Jun-Seok, a youthful (40-year old) anti-feminist conservative with an eye to the future, finished third with 8.3% of the vote.  Had he agreed to support Kim Moon-Soo’s candidacy the result could have been much closer.

The big winner in this election may be Korea’s democracy itself. 

The machinery of government – the courts, officials, media and security forces – was put to a severe test by Yoon’s behaviour but rose to the challenge of stabilizing the country since. 

Lee’s efforts to moderate his image during the election campaign suggest that he is highly aware of the need to bring more stability to the country’s politics.  An experienced and wily politician who only lost narrowly to Yoon in 2022, he is likely to avoid the naivete and thin-skinned behavior of his predecessor. 

But while democracy may have been secured, the Korean economy lcontinues to look fragile amid the economic pressures besetting the region.

Korea has stepped up as a manufacturing and high-tech export powerhouse, but its economy slipped into negative territory in the first quarter of 2025 – even before the full onslaught of President Trump’s chaotic tariff policy – and is predicted to grow by no more than 0.8% this year (more slowly than New Zealand).   

Its prized semiconductor, automobile and shipbuilding industries make Korea one of the countries with most to lose from protectionism.  Last month Korea’s exports to both the US and China fell 8%, while its imports fell 5%.  President Trump’s latest assault has been to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% - ironically timed to take effect from today (June 4).  Securing some sort of trade agreement with the US will be an urgent priority for Lee. 

His third – and longer term - challenge is security.   US policy towards the region, while ostensibly little changed from under President Biden, also worries Korea.  Under Trump, the US has shifted its strategic focus from Europe to Asia, weakening its commitments to NATO and Ukraine, while further ramping up warnings about China.  It sees Korea as a front-line state in resisting China – but it is not at all clear that Korea sees itself in the same way.   

For Seoul, North Korea remains the prime threat – and it is deeply fearful of US troops in South Korea being involved in conflict with China over Taiwan.  The US is pushing allies like South Korea to become more self-reliant in their own defence at the same time as South Korea’s strategic security concerns risk diverging from those of its ally. 

Koreans will not have been reassured by US Defense Secretary Hegseth’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last week, which framed China as the region’s dominant threat, warned of an ‘imminent’ attack on Taiwan, but conspicuously failed to mention South Korea.  

If Seoul is required to look after more of its own defence, then nuclear weapons are a serious option – a choice indeed that President Trump openly supported during his 2016 campaign.   Unlike the hawkish Yoon, Lee is firmly anti-nuclear, but his challenge will be to retain the US as a committed ally while treading a softer path towards China.

One area where Lee and Trump may have common ground is on North Korea.  Trump enjoyed an oddly warm relationship with Kim Jong Un during his first term, and many expect he may reach out once again.  Despite spectacular made-for-TV summits in Singapore and Ha Noi, Trump ultimately failed to secure any agreement on ending the state of war on the Korean peninsula or restraining North Korea’s nuclear weapons development.  Conservatives fear such a move could leave South Korea out in the cold, but Lee is likely to see more opportunity than risk in a more conciliatory approach to Pyongyang.

Lee will have plenty of scope to reshape Seoul’s policies towards its neighbours and the region.  On top of a strong electoral mandate, Lee’s progressive Democratic Party enjoys a comfortable majority in the National Assembly, giving Lee considerably more legislative power than Yoon ever enjoyed.  Indeed it was Yoon’s frustration with the opposition in the National Assembly that drove him to the ill-judged declaration of martial law that destroyed his own presidency.  

The focus will now turn to what kind of president Lee Jae-Myung will be. 

He has long been a polarising figure, adored by supporters for his charisma and fighting words, but pilloried by opponents as an extremist, and dogged by accusations of corruption. 

After nearly dying from a knife attack in January he campaigned entirely behind protective screens.   His rhetoric has been conventionally leftist – anti-American, anti-Japan and pro-China.

  In 2022 he said his ambition was to be a “successful Bernie Sanders”.  But in the presidential campaign he tacked sharply to the centre, proclaiming himself a “national healer” and stressing pragmatism and open-mindedness – an approach Koreans have mockingly referred to as “right-clicking”.

The focus on Yoon’s martial law and Lee’s personality left little room in the election campaign for social issues.  Korea’s acute demographic decline and seething tensions over gender issues appear to have had little immediate impact.  For the first time in several elections, there were no female candidates for the presidency, and the third place-getter Lee Jun-Seok has been criticised as openly misogynous. 

Image:  Lawmakers of South Korea's People Power Party react as they watch a television report on exit polls for the presidential election at the National Assembly in Seoul. /Getty Images

Efforts to increase rights for LGBT and other minorities continue to languish in Korean politics, yet women were far more active than men in the protests against Yoon and Lee will be conscious of their expectations.

Looking abroad, Lee’s approach to Japan will be an early indicator of his foreign policy.    One of Yoon’s major achievements was to restore the triangular relationship with Japan and the US.  Lee and his party have a history of virulent hostility to Japan, but during the campaign he showed an openness to dialogue that many, including New Zealand, will hope continues during his time in office.

Under the slogan of a ‘Global Pivotal State’, Yoon’s signature foreign policy was support for liberal democratic values and a global rules-based order.  In practice Yoon tacked close to the US and the G7.   

Lee is likely to moderate his more extremist views in office – but is still expected to set out a more open position towards China, Russia and the Global South, while maintaining solid ties with regional friends like ASEAN, New Zealand and Australia. 

Looming overall will be the challenge of dealing with a US turned upside down by MAGA.

Australia, Canada, the UK and now Korea are all headed by progressive leaders.  All are seeking to reduce their reliance on political and trade ties with the US and to rescue as  much of the furniture of the international rules-based order as possible, while being careful to maintain a relationship with Trump. 

Exactly how President Lee picks his way through the minefield will be watched closely by Korea’s friends.

Asia Media Centre