Thailand's Election : A Conservative Comeback

Thailand's general election on February 8th has delivered a decisive answer to the question of whether the country would break out from its pattern of political instability and economic underperformance. The answer, as the ballot results confirm, is not quite yet.

The election produced one of Thailand's most dramatic political reversals in recent years. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) secured approximately 194 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives—an impressive increase from the 71 seats it won in 2023. This poll represents the first decisive victory for a conservative, royalist-establishment party in Thailand this century.

Thailand's voters have played it safe, in a search for political stability in the Kingdom.

Meanwhile, the progressive People's Party (PP), which had led most of the political opinion polls during the campaign, and whose predecessor Move Forward won 151 seats in 2023, suffered a steep decline – taking just 116 seats.

Pheu Thai (PT), once the dominant political machine of the Shinawatra family, came third with just 76 seats, down from 141 in 2023—further indication of the party's declining electoral power.

The 2.5-step process plays out again

The vote continues the topsy-turvy trajectory of Thai politics, again showing that that forces beyond the electoral arena can call the shots in a 2.5-step process. Elections are left to voters, but the results are sliced and shaped by the royalist establishment through custodial agencies—the Constitutional Court, the Election Commission, and the National Anti-Corruption Commission.

When voter results overwhelmingly favour progressive forces, as they did in 2023 when Move Forward came out on top, the powers-that-be can deploy legal and constitutional obstacles to deny office to the election winners.

This election though, the electorate itself has delivered a conservative victory, no intervention required. 

What happened to the People's Party?

Going into election day, PP looked ready to repeat Move Forward's 2023 success. Early voting on February 1st saw a strong turnout, especially among young voters. Opinion polls throughout January consistently showed PP in the lead, with party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut commanding support of 29-35 percent for prime minister.

PP had overcome significant challenges in the months leading up to the vote. The Thai-Cambodian border clash in late 2025 had initially whipped up nationalist fervour to BJT's benefit, with PP regarded as too soft on the Cambodians. The party also annoyed some of its voters by endorsing Anutin for the premiership in September.

However, PP looked to have regained momentum in the campaign's final weeks, focusing on its core message of fighting corruption and reforming the economy to restore stronger growth.

Yet on election night, this momentum proved hollow, with PP winning only 116 seats—35 seats fewer than Move Forward's 2023 total. The party did take all constituencies in Bangkok and performed strongly in the capital's neighbouring provinces, but this urban popularity could not compensate for losses in provincial Thailand, where traditional patronage networks and nationalist messaging proved decisive.

Bhumjaithai's triumph

The odds, as predicted, were stacked in BJT's favor—and the party capitalised on every advantage. BJT used its incumbency to promote loyalists to bureaucratic positions overseeing grassroots constituencies especially in BJT strongholds in the north and populous northeast. Defections from other parties also bolstered BJT's strength—the party attracted 64 of the 91 lawmakers who switched parties since 2023.

Anutin fronted his party with three respected technocrats: Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas, and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow. This professional face provided BJT some significant electoral marketing appeal.

But ultimately, as anticipated, Anutin relied on royalism with palace backing and nationalism with military support to secure victory. The timing of parliament's dissolution in mid-December—amid heavy fighting on the Cambodian border—was no accident. The surge of patriotism prompted by the border conflict carried through to election day, with nationalism proving to be the defining issue for many voters outside Bangkok.

BJT's message of protecting Thailand's sovereignty, defending the monarchy, and providing stability resonated powerfully. The party strategically positioned itself as a natural home for well-connected local politicians and worked with provincial allies to avoid vote-splitting. This traditional approach to Thai politics—patronage networks, nationalist appeals, and royalist alignment—proved more effective than any progressive reformist agenda.

Pheu Thai's decline

This election marked the first time in two decades that Thaksin Shinawatra did not figure centrally on the political scene. Currently serving a jail sentence on corruption charges that began in September 2025, Thaksin's absence left a vacuum. His nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat, who hails from a solid academic background in biomedical engineering, became the face of the Shinawatra family, with support from Thaksin's former wife, and his sister.

Despite maintaining strong up-country canvasser networks and a substantial war chest, Pheu Thai's base has declined, and its populist policies failed to reverse that decline. The controversy over former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's leaked phone call with Cambodia's Hun Sen, which led to her removal from office, also severely damaged Pheu Thai's credibility on nationalist grounds.

Thaksin Shinawatra (R) and his Pheu Thai Party seem to be fast fading into Thai political history.

Pheu Thai won approximately 76 seats—65 seats fewer than in 2023—confirming its status as a fading force in Thai politics.

What comes next ?

No party reached the 251-seat majority needed to govern alone. However, BJT's commanding 194-seat majority puts Anutin in the strongest position to form a coalition government. The most likely outcome is a BJT-led coalition with PT and smaller parties, particularly the royalist-nationalist Klatham Party (which won approximately 63 seats).

This coalition would have comfortable working majority and represents a stable alignment of conservative forces, and with no need to fear any judicial intervention, a BJT-led government looks to be more durable than recent administrations.

Voter turnout stood at around 65 percent—significantly lower than in 2023—suggesting some fatigue with the political process. Simultaneously, voters approved a referendum on drafting a new constitution to replace the 2017 military-drafted charter, though a parliament led by conservatives will likely shape any drafting process and could slow or limit bigger changes.

Breaking out or status quo?

The February 8th election has answered the question posed before the vote: Thailand will not break from its pattern of political instability and economic underperformance, at least not soon. The electorate rewarded conservative parties that stressed nationalism, stability, and support for the monarchy over progressive forces seeking structural reform.

For younger and first-time voters who wanted change, PP represented their one and only real option this time, and PP's sweep of Bangkok and strong party-list performance nationwide shows that a real demand for change persists in urban Thailand.

The fundamental challenges facing Thailand—slow economic growth, structural inequality, and political polarisation—remain unaddressed, and while the 2026 election may have brought electoral stability to the royalist-conservative establishment, it has not brought Thailand closer to breaking its cycle of underperformance.

Asia Media Centre