Thai-Cambodia Border Tensions Remain Despite Ceasefire

It is evident after the recent clashes between Thailand and Cambodia that unresolved border issues are no easy fix. The latest incidents follow July’s border conflict, raising concerns that further confrontations could occur in the weeks and months ahead.

Last week, four Thai soldiers were injured after stepping on landmines in Sisaket near the Cambodian border. One soldier lost his foot. Only days later, a small-arms clash broke out near a disputed settlement. Several civilians were injured and one was killed, according to Cambodia’s defence ministry.

The deadly flare-up quickly led to accusations and denials from both sides. Thailand claims it has evidence that the landmines which injured its soldiers on 10 November were newly planted — a claim Cambodia rejects. In the gunfight on Wednesday, 12 November, both countries accused the other of firing the first shot. A spokesperson for Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said no one on the Thai side was injured and that the skirmish lasted around 10 minutes.

The exchange took place in a disputed zone that Thailand identifies as Ban Nong Ya Kaew village in Sa Kaeo province. Cambodia, however, says the area lies within Prey Chan village in Banteay Meanchey province.

July’s five-day war saw fighting erupt across multiple points along the shared 800km border. This particular area had previously remained untouched — until now.

The official border checkpoints nearby, Aranyaprathet and Poipet, are vital trade gateways, through which millions of dollars’ worth of goods move each day. Despite this economic interdependence, decades of unresolved disputes continue to fuel tension, culminating in last week’s flare-up.

In 1979, the village of Ban Nong Chan became a refugee camp for people fleeing Cambodia’s civil war. At its peak, the Khmer camp housed up to 48,000 refugees until the mid-1980s. Today, over 150 Cambodian-occupied households reportedly remain in the villages of Ban Nong Chan and Ban Nong Ya Kaew — settlements Thailand has now ordered to vacate.

“It’s not a surprise and it shows how the conflict is spreading and expanding. It’s not just the contested areas we know, but other areas as well,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

“Ban Nong Chan and Ban Nong Ya Kaew are the two areas where Thai people are resentful and very angry with Cambodia, and now they want Cambodians to leave.”

Last week’s incidents echo the events of July. Months of tension and border closures preceded Thai soldiers being injured by landmines near the frontier. Days later, conflict escalated rapidly, with tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery systems, drones, fighter jets, and infantry deployed. Hundreds of thousands were displaced, and dozens were killed.

This time, the clashes come less than a month after Bangkok and Phnom Penh signed the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord at the 47th ASEAN Summit in Malaysia. In the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump, the two sides signed their second peace agreement in three months, with Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet formally committing to de-escalation.

The agreement called for withdrawing heavy weapons from the border, removing landmines in disputed areas, and cooperating on transnational crime. According to reports, these processes had begun but after last week’s clashes, Prime Minister Anutin suspended Thailand’s participation in the joint declaration. Reports now suggest that heavy weapons on both sides have again moved closer to the border.

“The situation has deteriorated quickly, and the Joint Declaration, for all intents and purposes, is finished. It was weak to begin with,” Thitinan added.

While territorial disputes remain unresolved, the practical challenge remains demining. Thailand has accused Cambodia of only partially cooperating on mine clearance along the frontline.

Despite the tensions, U.S. President Trump has expressed optimism, saying both countries are “going to be fine” after speaking with Anutin, Manet, and Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Trump wants progress on demining and has floated the possibility of reducing tariffs on Thai imports to the U.S., a key leverage tool he used to secure the earlier July ceasefire. Currently at 19% for both Cambodia and Thailand, the tariff rate is lower than for several other Southeast Asian countries.

Both economies urgently need recovery, making a return to full-scale war, involving tanks, jets, artillery, and drones - unlikely in the near term.

Ou Virak, founder and president of Future Forum in Phnom Penh, does not expect a repeat of the July escalation. “I'm not so sure if the situation will escalate further than what we have witnessed over the past few days, but it is certainly not going to die down. The tension will continue. It’s going to be simmering over the next four or five months at the very least,” he said.

Thailand’s domestic politics could further complicate matters. Prime Minister Anutin is expected to call new elections in the coming months, and it remains unclear whether the border conflict will bolster or hurt him politically.

“It hinges on the elections expected to take place within the next few months,” Ou Virak added. “During the campaign period in Thailand, the situation around the border will continue to be tense. There’s hardly any agreed formula for lasting peace. There needs to be independent, regional or international mechanisms that both sides accept. Clearly, we need to re-mark the border and both sides need to accept it.”

Whether driven by Trump, tariffs, or election politics, more confrontations remain likely due to the Cambodian settlements inside Thai-claimed villages. Even if evacuations are conducted peacefully, long-standing mistrust could create miscommunication. Any provocation, a protest by Cambodian residents or another small-arms exchange, risks igniting yet another deadly clash.

-Asia Media Centre