Shinawatra's Uneasy Path

Thai politics have entered a period of heightened uncertainty after the Constitutional Court accepted a petition on July 1, 2025 to assess whether Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra breached ethics rules. The court ordered her temporary suspension from office, coinciding with the swearing-in of new cabinet ministers, a ceremony during which she was also appointed to a second post as Minister of Culture.

Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit briefly assumed the role of acting prime minister during the ceremony. However, later that day, Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Phumtham Wechayachai was officially appointed as acting prime minister at a special cabinet meeting.

Phumtham is expected to serve in the role until the court delivers its final ruling on Paetongtarn’s case, a process anticipated to take one to two months.

Allegations of ethical standard violations are not new in Thailand under the current constitution, which was drafted following the 2014 coup. The ethical standards provision has long been criticised for its vague definition of “ethics,” allowing broad interpretation that critics argue opens the door to political weaponisation.

If Paetongtarn is found guilty, she could be disqualified from office. The petition against her rests on the same legal grounds as the case against former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who was disqualified by the Constitutional Court in August last year after appointing a cabinet minister with a criminal conviction. The court ruled that Srettha had violated ethical standards.

Following his removal, Paetongtarn was elected to succeed him. Less than a year into her premiership, she now faces the same charges.

The significance of Paetongtarn’s ethical standards case extends beyond her political fate, it also poses serious challenges to the stability of the current coalition government. Following the withdrawal of Bhumjaithai, formerly the second-largest coalition partner, the government now holds only a slim majority in the House of Representatives. With such a narrow margin, the coalition’s long-term survival appears increasingly uncertain.

Street politics further compounds the government’s troubles. A protest on June 28, sparked by the leaked phone call, drew thousands of demonstrators demanding Paetongtarn’s resignation — a clear sign of growing public discontent.

The challenges facing the Shinawatra family go beyond Paetongtarn and extend to her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, widely regarded as the key figure behind her leadership within the coalition. Thaksin returned to Thailand in August 2023 and is now entangled in two significant legal cases. The first concerns whether his extended stay at the Police General Hospital, from August 2023 to February 2024, complied with Department of Corrections regulations. The second involves a lèse-majesté charge stemming from a 2015 interview, with hearings and witness testimonies scheduled throughout July 2025.

While final verdicts in both cases may take years, there is no doubt the Shinawatra political dynasty is now facing its most serious challenges yet. At this moment, the most fragile elements are not only the stability of the ruling coalition but also the broader future of the Shinawatra legacy in Thai politics.

The Shinawatra family's troubles extend beyond Paetongtarn’s case before the Constitutional Court and Thaksin’s ongoing legal battles at the Criminal and Supreme Courts. Signs of their waning political influence are also evident in recent public opinion polls. According to the latest NIDA Poll, published on June 29, 2025, Paetongtarn’s popularity has plunged from 30.90% in the first quarter of 2025 to just 9.20% in the second quarter, placing her fifth among preferred prime ministerial candidates. Her approval now trails behind both former junta leader Prayut Chan-o-cha and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul.

By contrast, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, leader of the People’s Party and current opposition leader, has surged ahead as the most preferred candidate, with support rising from 25.8% to 31.48%. The Pheu Thai Party has also seen a sharp decline, dropping from 28.05% to 11.52%, while the People’s Party has expanded its lead from 37.1% to 46.08%. These shifts suggest that the Shinawatra era may be nearing its end, as the political appeal that once defined Thaksin and Pheu Thai loses its resonance with voters.

Even before the Constitutional Court ordered her temporary suspension, Paetongtarn Shinawatra remained defiant amid growing political pressure, including calls for her resignation, the dissolution of the House of Representatives, and a new election following the leaked phone call. However, maintaining her grip on power has become increasingly complex. The most damaging consequence of the leak has been the erosion of public trust in her leadership. With the Court’s order suspending her from office, the political cost of clinging to power has grown steeper, as government stability continues to weaken under intensifying legal and political challenges.

Paetongtarn’s decision to stay in power is understandable when viewed through the lens of the Shinawatra family's political history. During both Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra’s premierships, the family consistently fought to retain power until all legal and political avenues were exhausted. Paetongtarn appears to be following the same playbook, determined to remain in office until the Constitutional Court delivers its final verdict. If found guilty, her disqualification would trigger the selection of a new prime minister — a scenario that could further destabilise an already fragile political environment. Given Thailand’s increasingly fragmented party system, forming and sustaining a stable ruling coalition would be a formidable challenge.

What we are witnessing now may be the most serious test the Shinawatra family has ever faced, marked by simultaneous legal threats and a dramatic decline in public support. The political strategies that worked for Thaksin two decades ago may no longer be effective in today’s changed landscape. The coming two months could prove pivotal not only for the future of Paetongtarn’s leadership, but also for the broader direction of Thai politics and the enduring legacy of the Shinawatra dynasty.

-Asia Media Centre