Shangri-La Dialogue Opens in Singapore

Vietnam’s President To Lam has used the opening of Asia’s premier security summit in Singapore to deliver a pointed warning about rising global instability, arguing that smaller countries are increasingly caught between competing powers and that military strength alone cannot guarantee peace.

Speaking at the opening of the Shangri-La Dialogue, attended by defence ministers, military chiefs, diplomats, media and businesspeople from across the Indo-Pacific , Lam framed the current international environment as one marked by mistrust, fragmentation and the erosion of global rules.

“The crisis of international order begins when rules are still invoked, but their binding force is eroded,” the Vietnamese president and Communist Party chief told delegates. “International law is increasingly applied selectively and at times subordinated to power.”

For New Zealand, which has long championed a rules-based international order and multilateral diplomacy, Lam’s speech echoed concerns recently voiced in Wellington about strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific and the pressure smaller nations face amid growing rivalry between the United States and China.

Lam warned against what he described as a “might makes right” dynamic in international affairs, saying small and medium-sized states are were under mounting pressure to choose sides.

“More connected yet more vulnerable, the strategic environment is marked by growing mistrust, fragmentation and competition,” he said.

The Shangri-La Dialogue, hosted annually in Singapore by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, has become one of the world’s most influential defence forums. This year’s gathering comes amid continuing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, rising tensions around Taiwan, and growing competition in the South China Sea.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth will address the summit on Saturday.

Singapore's Prime Minister (L) greets US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth at tonight's opening dinner/ Image IISS

Senior officials from Australia, Britain, France and Japan are also attending. China, however, sent only a lower-level delegation, with Defence Minister Dong Jun absent for the second consecutive year.

New Zealand’s newly-minted Defence Minister Chris Penk will also play a part, as a member of a three person panel including the Secretary-General of ASEAN, and Luthiania’s 41 year old Minister of National Defence, Robertas Kaunas. The three will discuss ‘Priorities within Asia’s Shifting Strategic Landscape”.

Vietnam’s own balancing act was central to President Lam’s address this evening. Hanoi has deepened security and economic ties with countries including the United States, India and Japan while maintaining close — and sometimes tense — relations with neighbouring China.

Vietnam continues to dispute Beijing’s sweeping territorial claims in the South China Sea, where both countries have expanded island-building and maritime patrols in recent years.

“The seas and oceans are not only resources but also shared spaces of connection,” Lam said. “No country benefits when these routes become theatres of coercion, confrontation, or displays of power.”

He reiterated Vietnam’s support for resolving disputes through international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

For New Zealand’s policymakers, the speech underscored the increasingly important role Vietnam is playing in regional diplomacy. Wellington has steadily strengthened ties with Hanoi in recent years as part of a broader effort to diversify partnerships across Southeast Asia.

The Shangri-La Dialogue takes place in the plush Singapore hotel that gives the gathering its name / Image AMC

President Lam also stressed the importance of ASEAN remaining central to regional security architecture - a position broadly aligned with New Zealand’s longstanding support for ASEAN-led institutions.

“ASEAN must remain central in maintaining regional balance, ensuring that the region does not become an arena for bloc confrontation,” he said.

Beyond geopolitics, Lam argued that sustainable security cannot be achieved through military build-ups alone.

“Defence preparedness is a legitimate need, but sustainable security cannot rest on military power alone,” he said. “Still less can it be built through arms races,” he added, perhaps in reference to new research from the IISS looking at the alarming increase in nuclear weapons systems being developed across Asia.

Instead, he called for stronger mechanisms for dialogue and “preventative diplomacy” to stop crises escalating before conflict breaks out.

“When trust erodes, defensive measures may even be perceived as provocation,” he warned.

The speech marked one of the President’s most significant international appearances since consolidating power in Vietnam over the past year.

Hanoi’s ambition is to position itself as an emerging middle power capable of shaping regional security debates rather than simply responding to them, and the President’s comments before this Shangri-La audience tonight will only aid in that goal.

The Singapore visit is part of an intensive diplomatic tour that has already included trips to China, India and Thailand, with a visit to the Philippines expected next. Vietnam has also recently strengthened defence cooperation with India.

For countries like New Zealand, which rely heavily on open trade routes and stable regional institutions, the President’s message was a reminder that the Indo-Pacific’s middle powers are increasingly seeking a stronger voice as strategic competition intensifies.

Asia Media Centre