Populism rears its head in Japan

In the US and much of Europe right-wing populism is on the rise.  Conversely, in the last few months South Korea, Australia and Canada have all chosen left-leaning governments, partly in reaction to President Trump and authoritarian politics.  On Sunday it was the turn of Japanese voters to express their views in an election for the Upper House.

Their response was a clear vote of no confidence in their own conservative leaders—but this time their discontent tilted right rather than left. The result leaves Prime Minister Ishiba’s coalition government hanging by a thread.

Nationalism, security and trade all featured as election issues, but voters’ main concerns were overwhelmingly about their wallets – the cost of living and taxation. After decades of economic stagnation, Japan’s economy has been showing signs of new life, but with the low yen driving up inflation, lowering real wages and reducing incomes, voters vented their frustration not just with the ruling coalition but with all establishment parties.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) failed to meet even the modest target he had set of winning 50 of the 124 seats being contested (half of the 248 Upper House seats are voted on every three years).  Voters deserted the LDP and its coalition partner the Buddhist-backed Komeito party.  The LDP’s nationwide vote fell from 43% in the last Upper House election in 2022 to 22% – a loss of 8 million votes.  The coalition had already lost their majority in the Lower House in bruising elections in November 2024; now they face trying to govern with a minority in both houses.  

Established parties of the left were also caught up in voter anger.  Japan’s venerable Communist Party shrank from 11 seats to 7, and the main liberal opposition party, the Constitutional Party of Japan (CPJ), did no more than hold its ground with 38 seats, though it remains the second largest party in both Houses.

The big winners were the centre-right Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and the extreme right-wing Sansei party.  Both appealed to younger audiences through telegenic youthful leaders, punchy slogans and highly effective social media.  The two parties attracted a remarkable 48% of all voters in their 20s and 40% of those in their 30s.

Both parties basked in anti-establishment anger, but their proposed solutions are very different.  The DPFP campaigned on economic populism, with the slogan of “increasing take-home pay”, and promises to cut the consumption tax (GST).  Sanseito called for “Japanese First”, warning of a “silent invasion” of foreign immigrants and tourists clogging the streets, driving badly, and raising house prices beyond the reach of locals

Overall, it is not clear whether voters have actually shifted right, or simply made their right-wing views more visible after years of sheltering inside the capacious tent of the LDP.  Frustration with poor performance seems to have acted as a push factor driving voters away from the LDP; Sanseito/DPFP effectiveness in campaigning to the young with new social media tools provided a pull factor.

In the long-term the election confirms the slow-moving collapse of the LDP/Komeito coalition which has dominated Japanese politics for over a decade.  But voters have not coalesced around alternatives. 

Nearly all the opposition parties campaigned on some form of tax relief, such as reducing the tax on petrol or the consumption tax (currently 8% on food and 10% on other items). The LDP sought to hold the high ground on fiscal rectitude.  Ishiba warned that Japan’s debt situation was worse than that of Greece at the height of its crisis.  But the LDP undermined its own position by promising a one-off payment of Y20,000 (NZ$225) to every individual taxpayer– without detailing how that might be paid for.  

Japanese voters have had enough of austerity and -despite Ishiba’s warning – seem untroubled by warnings of more debt.  Some commentators are sympathetic, noting that inflation is helping Japan fiscally by reducing the government’s gigantic debt burden (which is in any event mostly owed to itself) and that Japan’s corporates are spending up large on global investments outside Japan rather than sharing their earnings with workers.

Ishiba’s government may stagger on for a few weeks yet, simply because there is no immediate alternative.  Keenly aware that it could fall out of power completely, the LDP is reacting cautiously, and has not (yet) called for Ishiba’s resignation. The opposition in theory now has enough votes in both houses to bring down the government and form its own.  But the divisions within the opposition on some issues are even greater than with the LDP. 

The party will now look for additional support to shore up its coalition.  The likeliest outcome is another, larger, even more unstable grouping involving the LDP, Komeito, and either the DPFP and/or the Japan Innovation Party.  For the LDP part of the price to pay for such a coalition may be allowing a non-LDP leader to become Prime Minister.  DPFP leader Tamaki Yuichiro looks best positioned to make such a claim.

For New Zealand and other regional partners, the short-term consequences will be a further prolongation of weak Japanese leadership and policy drift. 

Ishiba has been forced to cut a rapid deal with President Trump in an effort to shore up his leadership.   The deal will leave Japan facing 15% tariffs to the US – better than no deal, but hardly a big win for Japan

More strategic policy such as Japan’s approach to China, CPTPP or its involvement in the Indo-Pacific Four including New Zealand, Australia and Korea will need to wait as the parties squabble over coalition conditions, tax cuts, handouts and budget spending.

Other social issues are also likely to take a back seat. One example is the argument over whether Japanese women should be allowed to choose to keep their maiden name after marriage.  Despite strong public support, and at least 1% of voters describing it as their number one priority, the LDP/Komeito coalition simply kicked the issue for touch in the last Diet session.  Lurking further back is the even more vexatious issue of same-sex marriage, with a Supreme Court ruling on the issue expected to put the government under pressure in 2026.  For now issues like these will need to wait.

From the perspective of a New Zealander living in Japan, the election is a welcome reminder that Japanese democracy is actually in rude good health.  Despite concern about voter apathy, turnout was 58% - the highest since 2010.  Women won 34% of seats – the highest number ever.  Politicians using innovative communication tools did well.  Older parties looking out of touch did not do well.  The voting system did what it was designed to do, enabling voters to rebuke their government for poor performance. 

As CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda said on Sunday night, "the public has clearly said 'No' to Ishiba's administration."

Despite the noise from Sanseito, as in New Zealand the main voter concerns were local, not foreign: how to increase living standards, control inflation and pay for food on the table (confused policy has allowed the price of rice to double in two years).  The election made their frustration clear, even while leaving considerable confusion as to what the alternatives are likely to be.

Asia Media Centre