Perceptions of Asia 2026 : How New Zealand's View of Asia is Changing

Something is shifting in how Kiwis see the world. Not dramatically, not overnight, but meaningfully. The Asia New Zealand Foundation's 29th annual Perceptions of Asia survey, released this week, captures a country growing more deeply connected to its region while simultaneously reassessing who its friends actually are.

The Asia New Zealand Foundation Te Whītau Tūhono is New Zealand's leading authority on Asia, with programmes spanning arts, business, media, research, leadership, and Track II diplomacy. The Perceptions of Asia survey, running since 1997, is its flagship research report: a nationally representative poll of 2,300 New Zealanders, and the longest-running dataset on how this country views its most important economic neighbourhood. Governments, businesses, academics, and journalists reach for it each year as a baseline for public sentiment.

As Foundation Chief Executive Suz Jessep says the survey continues to be a hugely useful tool for the organisation "The Perceptions of Asia survey has consistently tracked public opinion and knowledge about Asia since 1997. The findings have demonstrated a positive correlation between Kiwis understanding Asia and having confidence to engage and invest in the region,” she says.

The 2026 edition's topline finding will surprise some: for the first time in a decade, New Zealanders are more likely to see China as a friend than the United States. Forty-three percent regard China as friendly, against 39 percent for the US. A year ago, those numbers looked very different.

For the first time in a decade, New Zealanders are more likely to see China as a friend than the United States.

To understand the scale of the shift, it helps to trace the recent trajectory. In late 2024, the main survey showed 61 percent of New Zealanders viewed the United States as a friend, with just 17 percent seeing it as a threat. Then came the Trump administration's second term. By March 2025 - when the Foundation ran a supplementary mini-poll as tariffs, the Ukraine war, and Trump’s rhetoric about invading Greenland were dominating news coverage - friend perceptions of the United States had dropped to 32 percent, and threat perceptions had risen to match.

China's trajectory over the same period ran in the opposite direction, though not smoothly. Following China's live-fire naval exercises in the Tasman Sea and its strategic partnership with the Cook Islands, threat perceptions spiked to 41 percent in March 2025, while friend perceptions fell to just 21 percent.

The two countries had, in the space of a few months, managed to alarm New Zealanders in almost equal measure - one through an unusual assertiveness in the neighbourhood, the other through unpredictability toward its own allies.

Foundation Research & Engagement Director Dr Julia Macdonald says the survey findings are in some ways not surprising given the circumstances. “New Zealanders have a wariness about the big powers, that’s a given, and this data is showing New Zealanders are responding to real-world events and their implications for us and our region, and it also shows a Kiwi public that’s engaged with international developments."

The 2026 survey, conducted in January and February after those public concerns had partially settled, with sentiment stabilising in a new pattern. China's friend perceptions have now recovered to 43 percent, and its threat perceptions have fallen to 23 percent. The United States sits at 39 percent friend and 35 percent threat, a slight improvement from the March 2025 low point, but far below its historical standing. The picture is not one of New Zealanders choosing sides. It is one of a small, trade-dependent country in the South Pacific updating its assessments of reliability in real time.

That recalibration has a clear beneficiary, with Japan being confirmed as New Zealand's closest friend in Asia. A significant 81 percent of respondents viewing it as friendly, a ranking it has held consistently since 2017.

 But this year Japan went further, overtaking the United Kingdom to become New Zealand's most trusted global partner after Australia, with 70 percent expressing high trust.

Japan is also regarded as New Zealand's most important defence and security partner in the region and its second most like-minded country, a strengthening of positive perceptions at precisely the moment other major powers feel least reliable.

Singapore takes the top spot for like-mindedness, chosen by one in four New Zealanders, ahead of Japan's one in five. Respondents mention shared values, strong governance, and a similar outward-looking approach to the world. In an era when the major powers feel unpredictable, capable mid-sized states appear to be becoming more attractive to Kiwis as reference points.

The broader pattern of the report is of a New Zealand public doing its own quiet strategic thinking. Concern about misinformation and fake news tops the list of threats to New Zealand's vital interests for the second year running, mentioned by 51 percent as a major concern, ahead of climate change, rising authoritarianism, and cybercrime.

Concern about conventional military conflict in Asia has actually fallen. New Zealanders appear less worried about actual war than by the erosion of the information environment that shapes how countries make decisions.

As Dr Julia Macdonald notes: “It's a combination of geographic distance creating a lower baseline threat perception, a domestic media trust crisis making misinformation feel like a very real threat, and the increasing social media consumption in New Zealand making that concern self-reinforcing.” she said.

“New Zealand is geographically remote from the flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific - the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, Korean Peninsula. Unlike Australia, which has a much more pointed sense of regional security, Kiwis have historically been insulated from feeling directly threatened by conventional war. The survey data consistently shows New Zealanders want stronger Asia engagement and are aware of regional tensions, but that awareness doesn’t translate into personal fear of being caught up in conflict.”

On the question of Asia's future impact, the survey mood is largely optimistic. Eighty-four percent expect inbound tourism from Asia to benefit New Zealand; 83 percent see technology and innovation in the region as a positive; three-quarters expect economic growth there to lift New Zealand's prospects. Science and technology top the list of sectors where New Zealanders want more Asian investment, followed by healthcare, biotechnology, and infrastructure.

Culturally, the connection is deepening without much fanfare. Sixty percent of New Zealanders feel connected to Asian cultures in daily life, up from 56 percent. Travel to Asia rose 14 percent in the year to January 2026, with China, Japan, Vietnam, The Philippines and Sri Lanka, all recording increases. A third of New Zealanders consume Asian entertainment monthly — Squid Game and Parasite lead the favourites list, Studio Ghibli and Korean dramas are popular embedded across all age groups.

What the 2026 survey ultimately describes is a country whose public attitudes are catching up with its strategic and economic realities. Seven of New Zealand's top trading partners are in Asia. Nearly one in five New Zealanders is of Asian heritage.

As Foundation CE Suz Jessep notes, “These findings show New Zealanders’ connections with Asia go beyond politics and economics. They are also cultural, personal and part of everyday life,” says Jessep. “That depth of connection matters as New Zealand continues to navigate its place in a dynamic region..” 

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The Perceptions of Asia and Asian Peoples report is published annually by the Asia New Zealand Foundation Te Whītau Tūhono. The 2026 survey of 2,300 New Zealanders was conducted by Ipsos New Zealand between 21 January and 18 February 2026. The full report is available at asianz.org.nz

For further commentary on the report, you can get in touch with the Foundation's Communications team - [email protected]

Asia Media Centre