OTR: Sri Lanka's Presidential Election 2024

Sri Lanka goes to the polls on September 21, marking the first opportunity for the country’s voters to choose their leader after ousting former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the midst of a destabilising economic downturn two years ago.

The political crisis, which triggered unprecedented mass protests, was the worst the island nation has seen since Independence in 1948. After Gotabaya fled the smouldering capital Colombo and quit office, senior politician Ranil Wickremesinghe took his place through a parliamentary vote secured with the support of the Rajapaksas’ party, which still holds a majority in the legislature

Behind the rioting and the ructions was a nationwide call for a meaningful change in how the system operates, and how Sri Lankan democracy is run.

With multiple issues at stake—from economic recovery to governance reform—the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal in Sri Lanka’s modern history.
Since the economic crisis of 2022, Sri Lanka has been grappling with the aftermath of its worst financial collapse in decades.

While an International Monetary Fund bailout eventually provided a lifeline, many Sri Lankans are still dealing with high inflation, rising taxes, and austerity measures.

The 2024 election will likely be decided over how the candidates plan to steer the country through the next stage in its economic recovery. The IMF deal came with strings attached, and some of the austerity measures introduced have been unpopular.

At the same time many voters  want stricter measures to ensure transparency, reduce corruption, and hold leaders accountable.

There has also been a debate over the issue of constitutional reform -  particularly concerning the concentration of power in the executive presidency.

While central to the campaign economic issues are not the only concerns, with Sri Lanka still remaining a nation significantly divided along ethnic and religious lines.

The Tamil and Muslim communities continue to feel marginalised, with numerous unresolved grievances going back to the brutal civil war that ended in 2009.

Issues of human rights and ethnic reconciliation will be key for many voters, and will also be noted by international observers, as some Western countries continue to pressure Sri Lanka to address wartime atrocities and minority rights.

The Candidates:

Ranil Wickremesinghe ( Independant/ United National Party - UNP)

Currently serving as president after being elected by parliament in 2022, Wickremesinghe has played a key role in steadying the Sri Lankan economy through the IMF-backed restructure. 

Though he is seen as competent financial manager many Sri Lankans still associate him with the political establishment that oversaw the crisis, and his close ties to the Rajapaksa family have made him a target of public anger.

Despite his ties to the UNP, he is standing as an "independant" and his candidacy will focus on his short economic record, but for many voters he may well still be seen as a part of the problem rather than the architect of the solution.

He’s served as Sri Lanka's Prime Minister a record six times, but only holds one seat in parliament and will need to secure support from the other parties to stay in the top job.

Sajith Premadasa (Samagi Jana Balawegaya - SJB)

As the leader of the main opposition party, Sajith Premadasa represents the biggest challenge to Wickremesinghe. The son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa Sajith paints himself as the savior of the poor and middle class. He has consistently criticised the government's austerity measures, offering a menu of alternative policies focussing on various aspects of social welfare.

Premadasa will find support among voters who feel the current administration’s policies have only worsened their economic situation.

His other major advantage is his outsider status, a new broom without the baggage of the established political elites.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna -JVP)

Despite holding just three seats in the 225-seat Parliament, Dissanayake's focus on anti-corruption measures and improved governance have increased support among his left wing voters. His party has traditionally backed stronger state intervention and more closed market economic policies.

The JVP expresses a Marxist-Leninist philosophy, and was born from a revolutionary movement that has twice attempted to overthrow the government by force, once in 1971, and once in the late 1980’s.

Namal Rajapaksa (Podujana Peramuna – SLPP)

The 38 year old nephew of previous leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa has been confirmed as a candidate, and his Srilanka Podujana Peramuna party has supported the incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe in the current Parliament.

Namal’s participation in the presidential election signals the Rajapaksa clan is trying to re-consolidate power among the country’s Buddhist majority.

The Rajapksa campaign has highlighted nationalism, security, and a populist plan to bring back the good times the country enjoyed in the last decade.

He may struggle though to minimise the role his family played in the economic collapse of the country, with many Sri Lankans still explicitly blaming the Rakapaksa clan for the chaos and destruction that marked the end of the last government.

Many voters are simply disillusioned with the traditional political families and are seeking a fresh start.

More than any other in this poll, the Rajapaksa name comes with some very unpleasant political baggage, not only associated with corruption and economic mismanagement, but also past crackdowns on media freedoms, civil society activists, and opposition politicians.

Expect a coalition government, a mixture of pragmatism and populism, and watch for the minor parties playing a major role in the final result this coming weekend.

If the election is seen as credible and legitimate, Sri Lanka will have the opportunity to address the flaws in the current economic plan, as well as the deeper sources of the 2022 political and economic debacle. .

- Asia Media Centre