Opposition Leads Polls Ahead of Thai Elections

Thailand is heading to the polls on February 8th, in what will be a pivotal moment for the Southeast Asian nation's turbulent democracy. Recent opinion polls show the progressive opposition People's Party leading the race, positioning party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut as the frontrunner for prime minister.

The election comes after a year of extraordinary political upheaval. Current caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who has held office for only a few months, called the snap election in December after facing the prospect of a no-confidence vote that would likely have toppled his fragile minority government.

The decision also came during an especially volatile period, as Thailand's military was in a bitter standoff with neighbouring Cambodia over a long-running border dispute.

Anutin Charnvirakul/ Image Thai PBS

A Progressive Wave

According to polling conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration in early January, the People's Party commands support from 30.4 % of respondents – a significant increase from 25.3% the previous month. Anutin's Bhumjaithai party sits in second place with 22%, nearly doubling its support from December, while the once-dominant Pheu Thai party comes in third, with just on 16%.

A separate survey by Suan Dusit University painted a similar picture, with the People's Party garnering 34.2%, followed by Bhumjaithai on 16.2% and Pheu Thai on a flat 16% percent.

Its worth noting that the percentage of undecided voters has dropped markedly to 14% from a previous 40%, suggesting Thai voters have made their choices as polling day approaches.

Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut also sits as the clear favourite for prime minister, with nearly 25% backing according to NIDA polling.

The Shadow of 2023

These trends echo the outcome of Thailand's 2023 general election, when the People's Party's predecessor, the Move Forward Party, won 151 parliamentary seats compared to 141 for Pheu Thai and 51 for Bhumjaithai.

But despite having the most support, Move Forward was prevented by the senate from forming a government, and was shunted into the opposition benches before being eventually dissolved by the Constitutional Court over its proposed policy to amend Thailand's strict lèse-majesté law.

Pheu Thai ultimately formed a shaky coalition government with various smaller parties, including military-backed groups it had long opposed.

The People's Party has emerged from the ashes of that debacle, picking up significant pieces of Move Forward policy - including the plans to reform the lèse-majesté law, end military conscription, and break up Thailand's major business monopolies.

A Changed Political Landscape

Crucially, the 2026 election will be conducted under different rules than 2023. The military-appointed Senate will not participate in selecting the prime minister, removing a key mechanism the conservative establishment previously used to veto a progressive government.

This represents a significant shift that could finally allow the People's Party to translate electoral success into actual political power.

“Let’s see each other at Government House,” told excited supporters at a recent rally.

“On February 8, who will choose the People’s party? Vote for us on both ballots,” he said, “Who wants Teng (his nickname) to be prime minister ?”

However, whether the party can secure a large enough majority remains uncertain. Political analysts predict the People's Party could win between 140-150 seats, with Bhumjaithai securing 120-130 seats and Pheu Thai 90-100 seats. A tricky coalition arrangement would likely be the final outcome.

The Cambodia Issue

It’s been suggested that Bhumjaithai's recent surge in polling is connected to a rising nationalism in Thailand sparked by the border conflict with Cambodia. Fighting erupted in July 2025 and reignited in December, reportedly resulting in over 100 deaths and the displacement of more than half a million civilians on both sides.

Anutin's approval rating rose steadily throughout 2025, climbing from just 3% to 20.4% as he capitalised on nationalist sentiment. The question now is whether this boost will prove durable, or whether urban voters will tire of border issues and look again at the reform agenda being pushed by The People’s Party.

Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut’s relative silence on the border dispute is telling and draws a stark line between him and the more conservative parties. Taking a strong position on the Cambodia conflict risks aligning him too closely with the military establishment, or appearing unpatriotic to nationalist voters who have rallied behind Anutin's harder line.

An Uncertain Future

The third player here is Pheu Thai, historically Thailand's dominant political force and closely associated with the influential Shinawatra family.

In 2026 Pheu Thai faces a struggle as it battles to overcome the impact felt since the removal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in September 2025, following the leaking of a controversial phone call with the Cambodian Senate President and former leader Hun Sen.

Recent polling suggests it may finish third, a dramatic fall for a party that arguably once dominated Thai politics.

The broader question looming over the election is whether Thailand's conservative establishment – backed by the military and traditional elites – will ultimately accept a result that doesn't favour their interests.

It’s been a familiar cycle in Thai politics in the last few decades – a valid election  followed by an unpopular government, followed by public protests, followed by a military intervention to restore “order”..

Despite the constitutional changes reducing the Senate's power, observers remain cautious about declaring Thailand's democratic future secure.

While the People's Party may be positioned to win, whether they'll actually be allowed to govern is another question entirely.

The general election and a constitutional referendum will be held simultaneously on 8 February 2026.

 Banner Image/ Preecha. MJ

Asia Media Centre