Taiwan's Upcoming Election
22 November 2023
Taiwan is preparing for its highly anticipated election in January 2024. This poll holds the power to shape the future of Taiwan, impact its relationships with regional neighbours, and possibly redefine its role on the global stage. The eyes of the region will be on Taipei early next year, with New Zealand also taking close interest in the results.
Taiwan's complex political history is intertwined with its unique status as a self-governed entity with its own government, military, and constitution, but one that China claims as a part of its territory.
In recent decades, Taiwan has emerged as a beacon of democracy in the region, with a vibrant political scene and active civil society. It continues to work to establish itself as a profitable and well-organised trading nation by building key relationships with countries in the region.
The Key Players
President Tsai Ing-wen: from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is the incumbent. She’s been in office since 2016, and is the first female president. Tsai has been a strong advocate for Taiwan's autonomy and has faced provocative challenges from mainland China, which continues to favour reunification. The incumbent is barred form seeking a third term, and the DPP has selected former vice president and current premier Lai Ching-te, who is also widely known as William Lai. The DPP has named Hsiao Bi-khim, the former Taiwanese envoy to the United States, as Lai's running mate.
The Opposition: The primary opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), has been traditionally more open to cooperation with mainland China. In January their candidate will be Hou Yu-ih , the current mayor of New Taipei city. He first joined the party during the leadership of Chiang Kai Shek following the party’s defeat in the civil war against the Communists in 1949, and their subsequent flight to Taiwan, then more widely known as Formosa.
The Third-Party Candidate: It's not uncommon for third-party candidates to influence the elections in Taiwan, and this time it’s the turn of 64 year-old doctor Ko Wen-je, who has injected himself into the race by appealing to younger voters, but also those older Taiwanese who might be looking for a more liberal option than the KMT. He’s also promoting a “third way” in Taiwan’s sometimes fraught relationship with the mainland. He was Mayor of Taipei from 2014 to 2022 and has been chairman of the of the Taiwan Peoples Party (TPP) since 2019.
Before becoming mayor, he was a doctor at the National Taiwan University Hospital. He was also a professor at National Taiwan University College of Medicine, and is Ko P, or KP, a reference to his professorship at NTU. Having been consistently placed at second in the polls, he is a serious contender despite being largely unknown outside Taiwan.
The Independent: the tech billionaire Terry Gou has joined the race as an independent candidate after failing to receive a nomination from the KMT. His campaign has faced scandals, regarding vote-buying, and while it is very unlikely he will win the day, he could easily split the vote.
Latest polls indicate some fading support for the ruling party, with voter support for DPP candidate William Lai dropping below 30 percent for the first time.
However the DPP still remains the front runner, followed by the TPP and KMT.
In a stunning move last week and just days before the deadline to register candidates for the election, the KMT and TPP announced they were coming together to run on a joint ticket - news that would have been received with delight in Beijing.
Both candidates have been working to free up dialogue with the mainland, after Beijing cut ties over the DPP’s involvement with visiting US politicians. The KMT says Taiwan must return to the pro-Beijing “1992 consensus”, a deeply unpopular concept in Taiwan..
The new coalition is firmly in support of a closer relationship and connection with the mainland, however, there are already evident tensions in the new political coalition, with younger liberal TPP voters concerned the party will be subsumed by pro-mainland figures. If they do actually manage to keep things together for polling day, the combined grouping could be a real challenger.
First things first though, and the new coalition seems to have hit a major roadblock already, clashing over the choice of a presidential candidate. At present it appears the short-lived alliance may be all over, but this is Taiwanese politics and anything could happen before the end of the week.
Whoever ends up as the winner in January’s poll, the Chinese government, under President Xi Jinping, will likely maintain its hardline stance on Taiwan.
China has expressed its intent to bring Taiwan under its control, and it's likely that they will closely monitor and attempt to influence the election to ensure a more mainland-friendly leadership in Taipei.
Beijing would prefer a KMT-TPP victory to help defuse tensions and take the spotlight off the nascent independence debate. China’s top military official recently warned that China “will show absolutely no mercy” to anyone who supports Taiwan independence, and the head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office described the January poll as a “choice between war and peace.”
At last week's Xi-Biden meeting in California, the Chinese leader once again made in plain that Beijing will not accept an "independent" Taiwan.
President Xi Jinping requested that the US halt arms shipments to Taiwan, and denied Beijing has imminent plans for military invasion, saying China's preference was for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. .
According to Chinese state news agency Xinhua, Xi reiterated Beijing’s position, saying “China will eventually be reunified and inevitably be reunified”. He also described Taiwan as the most important and sensitive issue in the relationship.
And while the unification question is a big one in Taiwan, its by no means the only issue on the table in the upcoming poll.
Key Issues
Cross-Strait Relations: The candidates' stance on cross-strait relations will be crucial, as it directly affects Taiwan's sovereignty, economy, and security. There are also significant foreign policy issues for the region.
National Identity: The people of Taiwan have a unique national identity and pride themselves on their democratic values. Candidates' positions on preserving this identity while navigating complex international relations will be vital.
Economy: Taiwan's economy is export-oriented and closely tied to China's. Candidates will need to address economic issues, including trade policies, investments, and job creation. Taiwan is just emerging from a recession and 2023 GDP growth is likely to be well down on 2022. According to Hou and Ko, Taiwan needs to improve its relationships for the health of its economy to improve. President Lai suggests Taiwan’s economic policy must now look to diversify relationships to reduce its dependence on China.
Security: The threat of military intervention from China is a constant concern. How candidates plan to ensure Taiwan's security in the face of this threat will be a significant factor in voters' decisions. Also playing into this will be the future of Taiwan’s relationship with some of it’s other powerful regional neighbours, as well as the United States.
In 2000 a split KMT -TPP vote resulted in the DPP victory. This time that result may well be repeated , especially if the proposed Beijing-aligned coalition does not survive. If the grouping can't decide on a candidate very shortly, the DPP may find itself running unopposed.
But, a KMT-TPP victory would mark a shift towards a more mainland-friendly approach, a possible partial thaw in cross-strait relations, and a stepping back from some of the military brinksmanship of the last two years. Whether the Taiwanese voters want this outcome is the question.
Taiwan's January 2024 election is a pivotal moment in the island's history, and the outcome will undoubtedly have consequences, not only for Taiwan but also for the global order and the future of democracy globally.
- Asia Media Centre
