OTR: With a Changing Church, Could an Asian Pope Be Next?

The Rise of Asian Cardinals

During his papacy, Pope Francis worked to increase the number of cardinals from outside Europe, reinforcing the universality of the Catholic Church.

There are currently 252 cardinals worldwide, of whom 135 are eligible to vote in a papal Conclave — limited to those under the age of 80.

Of the 135 cardinal-electors, 108 — about 80 percent — were appointed by Pope Francis.

According to an NBC News report, Asia’s representation among cardinals has grown significantly, rising from 9% in 2013 to 17% today, while Europe’s share has fallen from 52% to 39%.

Across South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Western Asia there are 37 cardinals, with 23 eligible to vote according to the Holy See Press Office.

India holds the most cardinal positions in Asia with six, of whom four are eligible to vote in a Conclave. The Philippines follows with five cardinals, three of them are electors.

Other Asian nations with cardinals eligible to vote include Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, China (Hong Kong), and Timor Leste.

While the 104 cardinals over the age of 80 are no longer eligible to vote in a Conclave, they continue to play a vital role during the lead-up to the election.

They participate in the General Congregations — preparatory meetings where all cardinals, electors and non-electors alike, gather to discuss the state of the Church and the qualities needed in the next Pope.

During these sessions, non-elector cardinals offer advice, share their experience, highlight challenges facing the Church, and help shape the electors' understanding of the priorities ahead.

Among all the papabili (those considered likely candidates for the papacy), one name from Asia stands out in both public and media discussions: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, from the Philippines.

During the 2013 conclave that elected Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio of Argentina as Pope Francis, Tagle was already seen as a rising star. However, many believed he was too young and relatively new to the College of Cardinals to be seriously considered at the time.

After his election, Pope Francis brought Tagle closer into the Vatican’s leadership, appointing him to key roles—including Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples—entrusting him with leading the Church’s global missionary efforts.

Interestingly, unlike many senior figures associated with Pope Francis’s reforms, Tagle was not created a cardinal by Francis but by his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, in 2012.

Who is Cardinal Tagle—and why is he called the “Asian Francis”?

Born in Manila in 1957, Cardinal Tagle—also known as "Chito"—has held major roles within the Catholic Church, including Archbishop of Manila.

His deep commitment to social justice, humility, and pastoral care has earned him the nickname "the Asian Francis", reflecting his alignment with Pope Francis’s vision of a more inclusive and compassionate Church.

Tagle is known for his emotional intelligence and his ability to connect with diverse communities. As President of Caritas Internationalis, he championed humanitarian work and showed a deep empathy for global issues.

He also urged the Church to be more empathetic towards women, divorced Catholics, and single mothers, calling for greater understanding rather than judgement.

On the critical issue of sexual abuse scandals within the Church, Cardinal Tagle has been vocal. At a Vatican summit in 2019, he admitted that bishops had "inflicted wounds" on victims by covering up for abusive priests, saying, "We humbly and sorrowfully admit that wounds have been inflicted by us bishops on the victims and on the entire body of Christ."

He stressed the need for the Church to confront the "pain and shame" caused by clerical abuse and respond with decisive action.

Fluent in several languages and deeply rooted in theological scholarship, Tagle brings a global and pastoral outlook that many see as essential for the Church’s future and resonates with those hoping to see a continuation of Pope Francis’s progressive legacy.

However, despite his pastoral strengths, questions have been raised about Tagle’s administrative abilities.

During his association with Caritas Internationalis, the organisation underwent Vatican-ordered restructuring in 2022 due to governance issues—although Tagle himself was not personally implicated. The episode nonetheless sparked debate about his capacity to manage complex institutions.

In an interview with 9 News Australia, Charles Collins, managing editor of Crux and a veteran Vatican correspondent, said that while Tagle was initially seen as very popular when he arrived at the Vatican, after holding two key positions he described the Filipino cardinal as “all hat and no cattle”—suggesting that Tagle lacked strong leadership skills.

“He [Tagle] wasn’t the best business leader the Church has ever seen,” the editor added.

In the Philippines, where the majority of the population is Catholic, reactions to Tagle’s potential as the next Pope are mixed.

Some Filipinos celebrate the idea of a Filipino Pope and are excited by the possibility that the cheerful former Archbishop of Manila might be elected.

However, others criticise Tagle’s perceived timidity during his tenure as Archbishop, particularly his reluctance to speak out against the bloody drug crackdown initiated by former president Rodrigo Duterte, who now faces trial at the International Criminal Court for allegations of extrajudicial killings.

"In terms of addressing controversy and contentious issues, Cardinal Chito would not venture into dangerous waters," said Manila-based priest Robert Reyes in an interview with ABC News.

Additionally, while Tagle’s progressive image inspires many, it may not sit well with more conservative factions in the Church, potentially affecting his chances of securing wide support among the cardinal-electors.

The Importance of Asia in the Selection of a New Pope

Some experts believe the next Pope should come from Asia, driven by shifting geopolitical realities and the Catholic Church’s future growth prospects.

Asia is home to around 121 million Catholics—about 11% of the global Catholic population—but it’s also where the Church is growing fastest, particularly in the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and South Korea.

Meanwhile, Catholicism is declining both in numbers and influence in its traditional strongholds, especially Europe. Electing an Asian Pope would not only acknowledge this demographic shift but would also strengthen the Vatican’s ties to its emerging communities.

Geopolitically, Asia is becoming increasingly central to global affairs, with tensions rising in China, the South China Sea, and the broader Indo-Pacific region.

A Pope from Asia could bring a deeper understanding of the region’s cultural sensitivities, religious diversity, and political complexities—helping the Church navigate issues such as religious persecution, authoritarianism, and interfaith dialogue in ways a European Pope may not.

In response to these realities, particularly in communist countries in Asia, the Vatican has historically used the mechanism of in pectore (“in the heart”) appointments—secretly naming cardinals without immediate public announcement—to protect clergy in politically sensitive regions, especially in countries where the Church operates underground.

One of the most notable examples is Ignatius Kung Pin-Mei, the Bishop of Shanghai, who was imprisoned in China for over 30 years. He was appointed cardinal in pectore by Pope John Paul II in 1979 during his incarceration, and his name was only made public in 1991. His case reflects the risks faced by Church leaders in parts of Asia.

Given ongoing religious restrictions in certain countries, it is possible that there are cardinals in pectore operating in Asia today whose identities remain undisclosed for their protection—highlighting the region’s continued significance to the Papacy and the Church’s global mission.

This is why some believe an Asian Pontiff could serve as a bridge between East and West, and between Christianity and other major faiths like Islam, Hinduism, and Buddhism—at a time when dialogue and global peacebuilding are more urgent than ever.

Despite public speculation and popular favourites, experts emphasise that the Conclave is not a popularity contest.

Even if a cardinal is well known, it does not guarantee his election. The key question confronting the cardinal-electors is this: What kind of leader does the Church need to navigate the crises of today—and the unknowns of tomorrow?

Pope Francis ushered in sweeping reforms that brought the Church closer to the modern world. Some hope the next Pontiff will build upon this foundation; others want a return to more traditional ways.

Regardless of whether the next Pope leans progressive, conservative, or seeks to bridge both perspectives, the decision will be made through careful discernment behind closed doors.

As seasoned Vatican observers often say, “He who enters the Conclave as Pope leaves as a cardinal.” The outcome remains hidden until the world sees white smoke rise from the Sistine Chapel.

In the end, any one of the 135 cardinal-electors could be called to the highest office of the Church. And until that moment comes, all we can do is watch, wait, and pray.

 -Asia Media Centre