On the radar: Is a China-Taiwan war likely?

You may have been hearing about a China vs. Taiwan shooting war as news outlets report it is coming “sooner rather than later”. What exactly is being reported? 

“Having lived under the threat of Chinese military action for the past 70 years, Taiwan’s 23 million people have come to understand what they consider the strange paradox of the island’s existence: even as China’s military might grows, invasion does not necessarily come any closer.”

That’s one line from the Al Jazeera, reflecting on that fact the challenge of Chinese military action against Taiwan is nothing new. Rather, “it reflects an updated threat perception” in “the context of US strategic competition with China”.

From a local perspective, Jane Patterson’s recent article for Radio New Zealand contrasts the comments from foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta – “our relationships… require us to be nimble, respectful, consistent and predictable" –  with those of defence academic Paul Buchanan, who said if any conflict erupted and a coalition of countries, likely led by the United States, were to intervene, New Zealand would be “caught between a rock and a hard place” because it would be asked to join its Western allies.

According to people in Taiwan, quantifiably, military activity in the area over the Taiwan Strait has increased this year, writes the South China Morning Post (25 Chinese jets breached Taiwan’s defence zone in April in the largest incursion in a year).  Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council believes the Chinese Communist Party is using “cognitive warfare” to demoralise the Taiwanese people. The Taiwanese diaspora, however, is “used to sabre-rattling” and recognises that threat of war is actually a “way of averting war”. War is, in fact, the “last thing Beijing wants” reports SCMP.

World Politics Review shares this stance. It notes the significant political and military risk to China were it to invade Taiwan amphibiously, for it could be a “reverse Dunkirk”. Japan would get involved in defence of Taiwan and could see any aggression towards the island as a threat to its own security. China also knows any attack would come under tremendous international pressure, including economic sanctions, to reverse course.  Beijing will be seeing this as detrimental to China’s recent economic gains, further illustrating only a remote chance or war ­– at least at this stage.

Yet senior defence officers in Australia and the United States remain on alert. Australian Army Major General Adam Findlay says Australia must prepare for the “high likelihood” tensions with China may spill over into actual conflict, but the Chief of Defence Angus Campbell says a war between China and Taiwan would be “disastrous” and is pushing for peaceful dialogue. What’s more, while no American president has had to choose to defend Taiwan against military invasion by China, President Joe Biden may have to make that choice, believes US Navy Admiral Philip Davidson – he thinks China will invade Taiwan within six years.  US Indo-Pacific Commander, Admiral John Aquilino, shares a similar view, but other four-star generals are less convinced.

The drums of a China-Taiwan war are pounding louder in the media in recent weeks, so it pays to approach any coverage – especially from a US or Australian view, given the nations’ current hostilities with China (and correlating patriotism emerging) – with scepticism. Still, “there’s a lot to be nervous about” and we shouldn’t take all reports about the potential for real conflict as “warmongering”.

 - Asia Media Centre