New Prime Minister, Same Old Thai Politics

August 2024 was a chaotic month for Thai politics.

On 7 August, the Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party, which had won the previous year’s election with 14.4 million popular votes, after the party proposed amending the lese-majeste law, which the court ruled posed a threat to the democratic regime with the king as head of state. A week later, on 14 August, the Constitutional Court ousted Srettha Thavisin as prime minister on ethical violations after appointing ex-convict Phichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister. Srettha’s dismissal quickly led to the selection of a new prime minister. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leader of the Pheu Thai Party and youngest daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was chosen by the House of Representatives as Thailand’s 31st prime minister. At 37 years old, she is the country’s youngest and second female prime minister.

A car promoting Paethongtarn Shinawatra during her 2023 campaign. Image: Wikimedia Commons

Paetongtarn’s rise to the premiership is not entirely surprising. Many observers of Thai politics had long anticipated this day. After being formally introduced to politics in 2021, she became a key figure in the party. In the 2023 election, she was nominated as one of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates, and in the same year, she was elected as the party leader. Whether or not Srettha’s ousting by the court was accidental, it seems that her time to assume this role had arrived. The reason is simple: she represents the fourth generation of the Shinawatra family in Thai politics, following her father, Thaksin, who served as prime minister from 2001 to 2006, her uncle Somchai Wongsawat, in 2008, and her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, from 2011 to 2014.

However, being Thailand’s youngest-ever prime minister does not necessarily signal new or fresh politics. Many have raised questions about Paetongtarn’s leadership, as the shadow of her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, looms large, with many believing his influence helped her secure the top job. Immediately after Srettha’s ousting by the court, numerous Thai media outlets reported that leading figures of the coalition parties met at Chan Song La, Thaksin's residence in Bangkok, to discuss the next prime minister. Later, after Paetongtarn’s selection, on the day she received royal endorsement as the new prime minister, most of the questions from the press focused on her father—whether she would take his advice or what his role would be in the new government.

Thailand's former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thaksin himself also continues to play a visible role. Soon after her appointment, Thaksin was a keynote speaker at the “Vision for Thailand 2024” dinner talk organised by the Nation Group, where he outlined a detailed 14-point strategy to revive Thailand’s economy. These events signal that Thaksin Shinawatra remains a highly influential figure behind the new government.

Paetongtarn’s cabinet received royal endorsement on 4 September, featuring many familiar faces from the previous Srettha government. However, a notable change is the removal of the pro-junta Palang Pracharath Party, widely believed to be due to the influence of retired General Prawit Wongsuwan, the key figure behind the 2014 coup, who is thought to have played a role in the ethics case that cost Srettha his position. In place of Palang Pracharath, the long-time rival of Pheu Thai, the Democrat Party, has joined the coalition government. As is typical in Thai coalition politics, ministerial posts are distributed among coalition parties based on the number of MPs each party has, with the allocation of ‘quotas’ being a longstanding feature of the political landscape.

Therefore, ministers are appointed not based on their qualifications or ability to perform their duties but as part of the quota system allocated among coalition parties. It is unlikely to see the principle of 'putting the right man on the right job' in this type of political arrangement. In this context, despite having the youngest prime minister, how can real change be expected from this entrenched style of Thai politics?

Moreover, even before the new cabinet began its work, the Thai media had labelled it a "family cabinet." This is not only because of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra but also because of many ministers who are members or relatives of influential political families and networks. Family politics remains a hallmark of Thai politics.

Having the youngest prime minister does not necessarily signal a fresh start in politics. In Thailand’s case, it may reflect a continuation of the same old style of politics seen in the past, which is unlikely to bring meaningful change to the country.

Asia Media Centre