Manila Marks a Decade of the South China Sea Ruling, as Beijing Digs In

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled on July 12, 2016 that China's “nine-dash line” claim to most of the South China Sea had no legal basis under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The case was brought by the Philippines in 2013.

Manila's commemorations

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has repeatedly said the Philippines “will not yield even a square inch” of its territory and maritime entitlements in the South China Sea, though he did not repeat that specific line at this year's anniversary events. Instead, Marcos addressed a diplomatic reception marking the occasion at the Conrad Hotel in Pasay City on July 10, under the theme “A Decade Hence: The Enduring Promise of Peaceful Dispute Settlement,” where he framed the ruling as a matter of protecting Filipino lives and livelihoods, not merely a legal milestone.

“But let us not forget, the 2016 Arbitral Award is not just an abstract triumph of jurisprudence,” Marcos said, describing it instead as a matter of “defending lives.” He said the ruling had strengthened global confidence in international tribunals, and reaffirmed that disputes between nations must be resolved “not through coercion, not through the threat or use of force,” but through peaceful means and the rule of law.

July 10: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr reinforced that the South China Sea should not be an arena of force or coercion. Photo: Office of the Philippine President/Facebook.

The Philippines' Foreign Affairs Secretary, Ma. Theresa Lazaro, spoke at the same reception, giving the government's fullest statement on the ruling's permanence.

“This award is final. It is legally binding,” Lazaro said. “It is not a mere statement of policy. It is not subject to negotiation or compromise. It is an unshakable, permanent anchor of our rules-based international order.” She compared the ruling to a lighthouse: “It stands immovable upon bedrock, casting a steady, piercing beam to warn of hazards and guide all ships to safe harbour.”

Lazaro said the Philippines brought the case in 2013 not for itself alone, but “to speak for every nation... who find in international law a vital shield against geopolitical uncertainty.” She outlined the government's approach around four pillars, continued commitment to international law, open communication with Beijing, deeper alliances, and a foreign policy that “firmly asserts our rights”, and said the ruling would remain Manila's legal baseline in pushing for a binding Code of Conduct with China and ASEAN.

At the same event, Lazaro and Philippine Postal Corporation Postmaster General Maximo Sta. Maria III unveiled a commemorative stamp set inscribed “Final & Binding: 10th Anniversary South China Sea Arbitral Award 2016–2026.” One design features a Filipino fisherman against the national flag; the other shows a green sea turtle, painted by artist Mary Joy Ann Tuaño.

he stamps feature two designs bearing the inscription: "Final & Binding: 10th Anniversary South China Sea Arbitral Award 2016–2026. Photo: New Zealand Embassy Manila/Facebook

The Philippines' Defence Secretary, Gilberto Teodoro Jr., led a further series of events, including a forum in Makati City hosted by the Stratbase Institute, a flag-raising on Thitu Island in the Spratlys, a “peace walk” through Manila, and a community visit to fishing towns in Masinloc, Zambales.

At the Makati forum, Teodoro said: “What is this Arbitral Award for me now .. ? It's not an award for the Philippines, but an award for the world, because it institutes the peremptory nature of UNCLOS, and it guards UNCLOS against revisionist attempts by selfish and tyrannical and autocratic powers.”

In Masinloc, he told local fishermen: “We chose to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Arbitral Award with you because this effort will only succeed if its benefits reach our people.”

Joint statement backed by New Zealand

On July 12, the Philippines, New Zealand, the United States, Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia, 14 governments in total, issued a joint statement.

“We reaffirm that the Award rendered ten years ago by the Arbitral Tribunal is a significant milestone and is final, legally binding, and definitive between China and the Philippines with respect to the maritime entitlements and claims addressed by the Arbitral Tribunal,” the statement said. The countries added: “We reaffirm the Arbitral Tribunal's decision that there is no legal basis for China's expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea, including those based on ‘historic rights’.”

The statement also raised concern over confrontations at sea, opposing “the use of coast guard, military, and maritime militia forces to harass, obstruct, or intimidate lawful operations by other States at sea or in the air,” and called on both parties “to abide by the 2016 Award and resolve disputes peacefully through dialogue and other lawful mechanisms.”

Ambassador McIntosh joined the Stratbase conference marking the 10th anniversary of the Arbitral Award, highlighting the value of international cooperation in supporting a prosperous, secure, and rules-based Indo-Pacific. Photo: New Zealand Embassy in Manila/Facebook

As support for that statement, New Zealand's Ambassador to the Philippines, Dr Catherine McIntosh, also attended a separate high-level forum in Manila hosted by the Stratbase Institute, which drew ambassadors from more than 30 countries.

There, McIntosh said Wellington regards the ruling as central to regional stability, calling it a vital instrument in the “ongoing effort to uphold international law and ensure peace and stability in our region.”

She added, “This anniversary serves as an important call to action. It reminds us that the rules-based international order is not self-sustaining. It requires vigilance, commitment, and cooperation among nations like ours that value peace and the rule of law.”

She also pointed to New Zealand's practical contribution, saying Wellington is using its Starboard Maritime Intelligence Programme to help regional partners reduce the risk of miscalculation at sea.

Beijing rejects the anniversary

The Chinese Embassy in Manila said in a statement that the ruling “is nothing but a piece of waste paper that Beijing will neither accept nor recognise,” adding, “Ten years on, China's position on the South China Sea remains as clear, consistent and firm as ever.”

China's Foreign Ministry, via state media, said the arbitration case had “violated basic principles of international law, including state consent and pacta sunt servanda,” and claimed the ruling “has not resolved China-Philippines maritime issues, but instead has become a tool for the Philippines to expand its territorial and maritime claims.”

State-run Global Times went further, calling the 14-nation statement “a piece of waste paper” and questioning the standing of the non-claimant signatories: “Apart from the Philippines, none of the 14 countries is a claimant state in the South China Sea. What qualifications do they have to make irresponsible remarks?”

The ruling's real test is the Code of Conduct

The anniversary lands at a pivotal moment, with the Philippines chairing ASEAN in 2026 and pushing to finally conclude a South China Sea Code of Conduct that ASEAN and China have been negotiating since 2002. Speaking at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington in June, Lazaro said talks, once quarterly, are now monthly, and that Manila is targeting a deal by the end of the year, though she conceded four core issues remain unresolved.

The first is scope, which waters the code actually covers. The second is whether the agreement will be legally binding. The third is how the code relates to the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC), the earlier non-binding agreement between ASEAN and China. The fourth is the terms of reference underpinning the document itself. Lazaro cited one example directly: "Even the definition of self-restraint has not been resolved after almost 10 years."

The Philippine think tank Stratbase Institute president Victor Andres Manhit argued the chairmanship gives Manila leverage it must not waste, warning that “our negotiators must have a clear mandate, any Code of Conduct must uphold the Arbitral Award as the legal baseline, not treat it as a point for negotiation.”

According to the Lowy Institute, placing the Arbitral Award at the centre of ASEAN's maritime agenda could strengthen the bloc's legal coherence and provide a more consistent legal foundation for expanding maritime cooperation. Photo: ASEAN/Facebook

ASEAN as a bloc, however, did not issue any collective statement marking the anniversary. According to analysis in The Diplomat, ASEAN has never officially recognised the 2016 award in the decade since it was issued: at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting held just two weeks after the ruling in 2016, member states could not reach consensus to include any reference to it in their joint communiqué, with every proposed mention reportedly vetoed by one member state or another without explanation.

That pattern has held ever since, and analysts say the bloc's consensus-based decision-making, which lets any single member block language other states support, makes a shift unlikely even under the Philippines' current chairmanship.

Separately, Wu Shicun, chair of the Chinese-affiliated Huayang Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, was cited arguing the code is unlikely to be finalised during the Philippines' term precisely because Manila and Beijing remain at odds over whether the award should underpin it at all.

Asia Times separately noted that of the 14 countries in this year's joint statement, the Philippines was the only ASEAN member state to sign, underlining that the bloc's other members, several of which are also claimants in the dispute, chose not to join even in their individual capacity.

A separate analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggested Manila's chairmanship will be “largely rhetorical” on the COC, with the Philippines increasingly betting on its own network of bilateral defence partnerships, rather than ASEAN consensus, to deliver tangible security outcomes in the South China Sea.

Another test looming next week

Manila will get an early chance to test that leverage. As ASEAN chair, the Philippines is set to host the 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting and related gatherings in the capital from July 18 to 24, drawing foreign ministers from across the bloc as well as dialogue partners including Australia, New Zealand, India, Japan and the European Union.

The meeting will also mark the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, ASEAN's founding pact on peaceful coexistence.

For Manila, the gathering offers a rare opportunity, coming so soon after the arbitral anniversary, to press its Southeast Asian neighbours, several of them fellow claimants in the South China Sea, to finally speak with one voice on the Code of Conduct, even if a decade of ASEAN silence on the ruling itself suggests consensus will not come easily.

-Asia Media Centre