Lifting the lid on Xi Jinping's leadership: Q&A with Richard McGregor

Few old China hands would argue that President Xi Jinping has totally transformed China, domestically and internationally.

The speed of change took many China experts by surprise when Xi came to power seven years ago.  But the honeymoon appears over, with Xi facing increasing resistance at home and abroad. Led by the US, a coalition of Western countries has emerged that appear set on limiting China’s geopolitical and high-tech aspirations.

The recent publication Xi Jinping: The Backlash, by Australian journalist and China expert Richard McGregor, lifts the lid on Xi’s leadership in an informative, accessible way.

McGregor is a senior fellow at the Australian think tank Lowy Institute, and a former award-winning foreign correspondent and author reporting on the political landscape and economies of East Asia, primarily China and Japan. He is globally recognised as a leading expert on China’s political system and Asian geopolitics. He is the award-winning author of The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers and Asia’s Reckoning: China, Japan and the Fate of US Power in the Pacific Century.

 McGregor spoke to the Asia Media Centre about his book.

The Backlash paints a frank, and at times unsettling portrait of Xi Jinping.  What prompted you to write it?

A lot of the information was in my head. I follow China closely and just thought there was a story to be told. I think anything we can add to our knowledge of Xi and his leadership is important.  It took me two to three months to write, it’s only about 25,000 words – so more of a booklet than a book.

What’s been the official Chinese response? For instance, are you still free to travel to China?

There’s been no official response since its publication.  I’m heading back to China in a couple of weeks, but I doubt there will be any problems.

You write that in Xi’s eyes, the most important quality for a Chinese leader is to be ‘red’.  What do you mean by that?

Xi clearly believes that being loyal to the Party is of utmost importance, following its dictates, supporting it through thick and thin and ups and downs.  Being a stalwart supporter is what he believes in.

I’d describe more as a leader in perpetuity rather than for life.  He is not under any serious threat, mainly because he has eliminated any potential enemies. And if China’s economy remains in reasonable shape he can count on support.

Where do you see the US-China trade war going?

It’s clear both sides are approaching some sort of deal.  The question will be how far reaching it is.  Some tariffs will come off, or not go on, but there’s still no real clarity around what that will look like.  The timing of any agreement and what the deal looks like is still unclear.

New Zealand has signed an updated FTA with China.  What are your thoughts on the risk of becoming too reliant on China in terms of trade?

There’s no doubt the upgrade is good for New Zealand.  I don’t know the precise figures for New Zealand, but it will be similar to Australia’s figures in terms of the importance of the China market.  The reality is there are no other markets as big, as growing and as willing to buy Australian and New Zealand products as China is.  But it’s important to realise that China is buying from us because they want our goods, not because they necessarily like us.

How have the Hong Kong protests changed the international dynamic for Xi?

It’s hard to say how it has changed.  There is little official news of the issue in China in terms of Xi’s response.  There are no visible signs of how long-term any fallout might be, but I think it has the potential to impact on how China moves forward in its efforts to unify Taiwan.  I suspect the China-Taiwan relationship to get worse.  The January presidential elections are likely to result in the current president retaining office and that means China will continue to put pressure on Taiwan in different ways.  But that’s likely to further alienate the Taiwanese people and make unification more difficult.

Xi is often seen as a leader-for-life.  Just how strong is his support, and has it already peaked?

I’d describe more as a leader in perpetuity rather than for life.  He is not under any serious threat, mainly because he has eliminated any potential enemies. And if China’s economy remains in reasonable shape he can count on support. But looking forward to the 2022 Party Conference. I think by then there will be more pressure on him to talk about succession.

 Interview conducted by Mark Russell

Quotes from the The Backlash:

• “Today China is not just a geopolitical challenge to the West. It is a real-time empirical experiment, challenging the West’s post-Cold War ascendancy.  Far from being a pre-modern throwback to discredited authoritarian ways, Xi’s project is taking shape as a post-modern phenomenon a surveillance state with a fighting chance of success at home and the potential to replicate its core elements abroad.”

• “In the Pacific, Beijing has showered small island nations with attention and aid, inflating their bargaining power with their traditional benefactors, Australia and New Zealand. The United States and a handful of allies might be hanging up on Huawei and its advanced mobile technology, but the rest of the world isn’t.  In addition, steadfast US allies such as Japan and Australia continue to sustain their economies through trading with China, even as they grow more wary of it.”

• “There has never been a shortage of Westerners over centuries who claim to feel disappointed and let down by China.  But this time the break seems sharper, and the divide greater.  In the fracturing democratic political systems in the West, pushing back against China stands out as a rare issue that can garner bipartisan support.”

- Asia Media Centre