Could Japan solve New Zealand’s security challenges?

Pilots from the Royal New Zealand Air Force, taking to the sky in the P-8A aircraft, were tasked in March and April with conducting surveillance of the illegal maritime activities of North Korean vessels in the Yellow and East China Seas.

 Their operations were flown from the Kadena Air Base in Japan and saw close collaboration with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force. This came at an important moment for the New Zealand-Japan relationship. Both share concerns about hostile powers seeking to upend the rules-based international order.

Regional threats are not limited to North Korea. China is becoming increasingly provocative, in its neighbouring seas and the Western Pacific. On 4 March, for example, an Australian naval helicopter monitoring North Korean sanctions-busting was approached at a dangerously close distance by a Chinese military aircraft.

Both Minister of Defence Chris Penk and his predecessor Judith Collins have been clear that China’s destabilising policies mean that New Zealand’s geographic distance can no longer be assumed to guarantee security.

The 2025 Defence Capability Plan, which commits $12 billion to defence over the next four years, is a start. But as the Luxon government admits, this will be used to replenish – not upgrade - the nation’s hollowed out armed forces.

Advancing defence cooperation with capable foreign partners will have to pick up the slack. Japan, which is undergoing a geopolitical awakening, is a willing partner. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is keen to back up Japan’s allies in the Pacific.

On 21 April, Takaichi hit international headlines when she announced major reforms to Japan’s defence export rules. Lethal weapons, like missiles, warships, and fighter jets, are now approved for export to likeminded partners, including New Zealand and Australia.

Previously, Japanese firms had only been able to export non-lethal equipment. Through this reform, Japan is staking its claim to be a major regional military actor – a good prospect for Wellington and Canberra.

Greater cooperation with Japan is a strategic necessity for both nations. New Zealand and Australia, both concerned by the Trump administration’s distraction from Asia and the Pacific, are ‘middle powers’ in need of reliable allies. Japan, a more major power with growing military might, fits the bill.  

For one, Tokyo has a clear policy: the Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision, first developed by the late former Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. Under FOIP, as its known, Japan works for a region where states commit to freedom of navigation and trade, and respect for national sovereignty.

In practical terms in the Pacific, Japan already has a policy of proactive engagement with the Melanesian and Polynesian islands – a very important theater for New Zealand’s national defence.

Like New Zealand and Australia, Japan has also faced a number of Chinese provocations. Vessels from China’s Coast Guard have repeatedly entered Japan’s waters around the Senkaku Islands and this activity has intensified in recent years.

While U.S. military presence is crucial for regional stability, Japan sees itself as the geographic center of efforts to contain and dissuade Chinese aggression. As the U.S. wavers, Tokyo is keen to show that it can bind in regional allies, from the Philippines and Vietnam to Australia and New Zealand.

This thinking is sound: the whole force of a military effort is greater than the sum of its parts.

Arms sale diplomacy is a good example of this approach in action. Australia, which has long been New Zealand’s closest security ally, recently signed contracts to buy 11 advanced Mogami-class frigates from Japan. The next-generation vessels offer the Australian Navy an upgrade from its ageing ANZAC fleet.

With New Zealand also looking to replace its two remaining naval frigates, Wellington may follow Canberra’s approach and choose Japanese frigates over the British Type-31.

This will mean the three countries have similar naval and air capabilities. As collaboration grows, a potential trilateral partnership is born. Japan can also serve as the bridge for greater New Zealand and Australian cooperation with friendly Southeast Asian states, most of all the Philippines but also Singapore and Indonesia.

These partnerships, based on a shared regional vision, are lifelines for New Zealand as the government struggles to get to grips with today’s geopolitical realities. The opportunities are there to be seized. National security is of course the ultimate prize.

-Asia Media Centre

Banner Image - Personnel from Royal New Zealand Air Force No. 5 Squadron with Japanese and U.S. counterparts during multilateral exercises held near Japan, in 2025. The exercises focused on strengthening operational coordination and regional cooperation. Image Credits - Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (via NZ Defence Force's Facebook page)