Chinese Run To Japan

 A new wave of Chinese immigration to Japan is underway.  This time rather than unskilled labour looking for higher-wage opportunities, it is middle-aged and wealthy migrants with children who are moving, motivated by education, asset security, lifestyle, and to some extent – escape from China.  

As a result Japan, a traditionally homogenous nation with few foreign residents, is starting to face some of the concerns that have arisen in New Zealand and other immigrant nations, including pressure on housing prices, competition in schools and universities, worries about non-assimilation, and fears of political surveillance and interference.

The new wave is summed up in the phrase 潤日or ‘run to Japan’  - the title of a book published recently by Chinese-speaking scholar Takehiro Masutomo.  Since Covid, Chinese have used the character 潤 – pronounced similarly to the English ‘run’  - to describe the phenomenon of Chinese moving away from China.  With the trend now hitting Japan, the character日 ‘ri’ for Japan has been added.

Japan's Economist magazine features a cover sdtory looking at the new migration/Image supplied

Japan has always had a sizeable Chinese population, but since the Covid pandemic the number of Chinese immigrants has accelerated.  The number of Chinese living in Japan is expected to rise from 870,000 at the end of 2024 to 1 million in 2026 – around 0.8% of the total population. These numbers are still small in both absolute and relative terms.  In New Zealand for example the 2023 census showed 279,000 residents of Chinese origin, making up 5.6% of the population.  In terms of share of population, New Zealand ranks ahead of the US, Australia and Canada, exceeded only by Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.

According to Takehiro, top of the list of Japan’s attractions in recent years has been the low yen, which makes Japan’s first-world lifestyle highly affordable.  Further drawcards for Chinese include geography (Tokyo is a two-hour flight from Shanghai), and the relative familiarity of its culture, cuisine and use of Chinese characters. Japan’s schools and universities, while well below the prestige of blue-ribbon destinations like the US and UK, are seen as high quality, less competitive than in China, and far more affordable.  In November 2024 70% of foreign students enrolled at Tokyo University, one of Japan’s best, were from China.

Japan is easy to enter and invest in.  Just five million yen (around NZ$57,000) is enough for a business visa, setting up business is relatively straightforward, and (unlike New Zealand) there are no restrictions on buying land or real estate.  British immigration firm Henley and Partners estimated in 2024 that 13,500 Chinese millionaires (in dollar terms) would leave the country in 2023, more than from any other country.  In 2023, of the two most valuable Japanese visa categories, Chinese made up more than half of applications for the "Management and Administration" visa and 66% of the "Senior Professional" visa.

Takehiro Masutomo's recent book on the "run to Japan"/ image supplied

Japan is benefitting from the collapse of popularity of the US, increasingly seen in China as dangerous and anti-Chinese. The number of Chinese students studying in the US had already dropped from around 370,000 in 2019 to around 290,000 in 2024. Those fears have been magnified in recent months by the Trump administration targeting Chinese and other foreigners with swingeing restrictions on entry and education. 

These motivations mark this generation of Chinese immigration as different from their predecessors. More interested in good schools, security, and lifestyle than in jobs, these migrants prefer the large cities of Tokyo and Osaka, run their own businesses or investments, are less interested in learning Japanese, and prefer to congregate with other Chinese. They like larger apartments than the Japanese are used to – some are even developing their own apartment towers with larger footprints. Chinese language schools and university courses are proliferating; there are now five specialist Chinese-language bookstores in Tokyo, and upmarket nightclubs are catering to the entertainment needs of the new community. 

The result is a boon to parts of the Japanese economy. For many universities and schools, hit by declining numbers of local students, the arrival of hard-working and ambitious Chinese students is welcome. Sectors from real estate to investment are excited by the influx of yuan and high-end spenders.

Yet the majority of Japanese do not seem to share the welcoming mood. 

Polls show  around 70% of locals are either ‘opposed’ or ‘somewhat opposed’ to Chinese immigration.  Their concerns are familiar to New Zealanders and other immigrant nations:  intense competition in schools and universities pushing out locals, rising house prices, and discomfort with new communities appearing to keep to themselves rather than integrate with the local community.

Japanese fears are not just related to China: as Japan’s population ages and shrinks, numbers of immigrants have soared, making foreigners a common sight as builders, waiters and convenience store workers around the country.  Economist Jasper Koll estimates that Japan loses 2,500 people every day through aging, but gains 1,200 applications for long-stay visas every day as well. 

Foreign residents have been rising by more than 10% per year since 2021, and have reached 3% of the total population but are heavily concentrated in the large cities.  In Tokyo’s Shinjuku-ku, home to the city government, the biggest nightlife area and the world’s busiest train station, nearly one-third of the working-age population (those aged 15-60) are now foreign-born.

The greater Tokyo metro area is now home to nearly 37 million people/ image Pexel

There are legal and political concerns as well.  Chinese citizens are limited to buying foreign currency worth US$50,000 in one year, yet purchases of Tokyo apartments usually involve upwards of US$1million, and are typically financed – says Takehiro – by underground banks working through complex third country transactions. Japanese financial authorities are taking an increasing interest in suspected money laundering.

The political impact of Chinese immigration is also attracting attention. At least some of the new arrivals readily admit to seeking to secure their family assets outside China away from government interference, and to wanting personal freedoms unavailable in China.  For many, the experience of the Covid lockdowns and living restrictions, as well as perceptions of a faltering economy, have shaken their confidence about staying in China.

US National Public Radio (NPR) last year reported the comments of an (anonymous) Chinese journalist, newly immigrated to Japan, claiming that many of his friends among China's elite had been cheerleaders for the government policies that had brought them affluence and success, but that the strict pandemic lockdowns had changed their minds.

"They discovered their advanced degrees, money and connections could not help them with their most basic travel and living needs," he says, "and it was a big blow to them."

The Asahi newspaper last year reported on small groups of well-educated Chinese meeting in Tokyo to discuss intellectual, economic and political issues.  When billionaire Jack Ma fell out of favour with the Chinese government and was required to go ‘quiet’ for a period, he was spotted spending much of his time in Tokyo.  Other Chinese business leaders from sectors such as real estate and telecoms are reported to have established bases in Japan.  Local commentators have talked of the potential for a second ‘Sun Yat-sen’ moment – recalling the period at the beginning of the twentieth century when Japan was an intellectual hub for young Chinese students like Sun Yat-sen – who subsequently led the overthrow of the Qing dynasty and became China’s first president.  

Journalist/Author Takehiro Masutomo/ image supplied

Perhaps reflecting this concern, Takehiro in turn reports that some of the new immigrants to Japan are already under surveillance by Chinese authorities – and worries that this may escalate to closer monitoring.  He says many fear for the safety of family members left behind in China.

Reports of political refugees fleeing China are grist to the mill of global anti-China groups.  The US-based Falun-gong aligned Epoch Times ran a long article last month highlighting the political motives of several recent migrants to Japan.   Yet the focus is probably overdone.  Unlike in Canada, Australia or New Zealand, there have been no allegations of political interference in funding or elections from either the Chinese community or government.  To date the impact of the new migrants has been primarily on the education and real estate sectors, and in some specific localities, such as Bunkyo-ku in north central Tokyo.  The biggest challenge for most Japanese is likely not political interference, but social adjustment in learning to live with a new generation of well-heeled, well-educated and highly visible Chinese who may occasionally fail to sort their rubbish properly.   Some of them may indeed have political views, but they are principally here for the lifestyle.

Asia Media Centre