Bangladesh Election: A Crucial Test
10 February 2026
This week Bangladesh goes to the polls in what's being seen as a stress test for the country's democratic system. What's at stake in the country of 178 million people ?
On Thursday 12 February, Bangladesh holds parliamentary elections that could reshape the South Asian nation's political future.
The 2024 'Monsoon Revolution' ended leader Sheikh Hasina's 15-year autocratic rule, during which democratic institutions were systematically dismantled. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has struggled to restore basic governance while preparing for these elections and a upcoming constitutional referendum on democratic reforms known as the July Charter.
Approximately 127.7 million Bangladeshis are registered to vote. The median age is just 26, meaning many voters came of age during Hasina's regime when elections were largely meaningless exercises. Unlike New Zealand's established democratic traditions, these young Bangladeshis are currently navigating their first truly contested election.
The political landscape has been fundamentally altered. Hasina's Awami League (AL) faces an administrative ban for its role in the brutal 2024 crackdown that killed hundreds of protesters. While this raises questions about political inclusivity, there's strong resistance to the AL's involvement from those who led last year's uprising.
Despite its enduring reputation for corruption and bungled governance the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) starts as favourite, but faces a serious challenge from an unlikely alliance: Jamaat-e-Islami, the country's largest Islamist party, which has joined with the youth-led National Citizen Party (NCP).
For Jamaat, this represents a strategic rebranding opportunity. It was vilified for opposing independence in the 1970's, but in the last two years its student wing has dominated university elections, creating momentum that could transfer to a wider success at the polls.
Their alliance with the NCP signals an attempt to move beyond their traditional Islamist base, though this partnership has fractured the progressive wing of the NCP, home to many Gen-Z voters.
The BNP, meanwhile, is courting religious minorities, secular groups, and moderate Muslims — constituencies that traditionally supported the now-banned AL. This realignment demonstrates the transformation underway in Bangladesh politics, away from the dominance of just two parties.
From a New Zealand perspective, the stakes are significant. Bangladesh is a major garment exporter and strategic player in South Asia, and combined two-way trade with New Zealand was around $457 million in 2024, most of that either dairy products or scrap metal. Bangladesh benefits from tariff-free imports into New Zealand, most of the trade is textiles and apparel.
The rise of Islamist parties as independent political forces — rather than mere political powerbrokers — represents a shift that may impact on regional stability and New Zealand's trade interests in the broader Asia-Pacific region.
The election's credibility depends on the interim government delivering a peaceful process amid security challenges, misinformation, and political violence.
For a country emerging from decades of authoritarian rule, the upcoming vote will determine whether Bangladesh can establish the kind of stable, transparent democracy that New Zealanders often take for granted.
Banner Image: The Bangladesh Parliament, or Jatiyo Shangsad in Bengali and House of the Nation in English . It is a unicameral legislature consisting of 350 members of which 300 Members from 300 territorial constituencies. The remaining 50 seats are reserved for women who are elected by the MP's using a Single Transferable Vote framework. This provision for 50 reserved women seats is set to continue for the next 20 years.
Asia Media Centre