As the Russian military invasion of Ukraine enters its second week, Vladimir Putin’s hope of a quick and easy victory have largely evaporated, and Russia faces mounting international criticism, and economic sanctions that look set to cripple the Russian economy. AMC's Graeme Acton wraps up the reaction across Asia this week.
To many in Asia , Ukraine is a far-away land somewhere in Europe, cold, snowy, old, somewhere near Russia.
This week though, Ukraine has been centre stage in Asia, and across the world.
Reaction to the invasion of Ukraine in much of the Asian media began by focusing on the desperate attempts by Asian governments to repatriate their citizens from Kiev and elsewhere.
Vietnam moved quickly to assist its estimated 7000 citizens, mainly based in Ukraine’s three major cities. Thailand and Indonesia were among Asian nations which mobilised quickly to get citizens and embassy staff out of the firing line.
Across Asia several countries saw anti-invasion protests and Foreign Ministers from the ASEAN countries issued a run-of-the-mill press statement calling on both sides to desolate tensions, pursue dialogue, and find a peaceful outcome.
As Asia emerges from the pandemic, this new crisis looks set to impact on tourism, with Russian visitors valued across the region for their high-flying holiday habits in places like Phuket and Bali. The business pages of many major dailies are already difficulties in meeting the expected tourism targets in a post-covid Asia.
There’s also likely some additional economic pain ahead for Asian nations, with increased fuel prices already hitting home, not to mention the massive amounts of Ukraine-sourced wheat, oats and other cereal grains imported across the region.
Russia also has a huge arms trade with the region, Moscow being the single biggest supplier of arms to Southeast Asia between 1999 and 2018 according to the Stockholm International Peace research institute.(SIPRI)
Across Asia, governments have expressed varying levels of criticism towards Moscow over the invasion during the last week.
Right out front was Singapore, which quickly moved to sanction Russia in the banking and financial sectors. Prime Minister Lee Hsian Loong took to Facebook to express Singapore’s support the UN Charter
At the other end of that particular spectrum, Myanmar was sure to praise Russia for defending its “sovereignty” with the attack on Ukraine. The generals in Naypyidaw see Russia as one of their few supporters and Russia remains a major supplier of military weapons to the junta. Coup leader Min Aung Hlaing still awaits his personal invitation to the Kremlin, while the dirty work of attempting to consolidate last year’s military takeover continues.
Myanmar’s population however reacted with anger towards Russia, one year into their very own battle with authoritarian leadership. Myanmar’s National Unity Government, still in hiding, was quick to back a region-wide wave of concern over Mr Putin’s moves against Kiev.
Military connections also played a part in the reaction out of Jakarta, with the Indonesian Foreign Minister releasing an anodyne statement referring to “military attacks”, but not actually naming Russia as being responsible for the aggression.
Thailand,grabbed an opportunity on the world stage at the UN’s 76th Plenary Session in New York. UN Ambassador Suriya Chinadawongse told the meeting of Bangkok’s concerns over the invasion, and the threat to international peace and security.
He also reiterated his country’s support for the 2015 Minsk Agreement, a document President Putin appears to have already shredded.
And then there is Beijing, which has now firmly put aside its earlier ambiguity on the invasion, openly asserting that the move was the fault of the US.
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at a meeting in Beijing, February 2011 photo/ Kremlin Pool
China too has called for cool heads and dialogue, and Xi Jinping must have one eye on this years 20th CCP Congress ,where he hopes to be able to consolidate his place at the top for the foreseeable future. He needs to avoid being anywhere near the tar and feathers targeted at the Kremlin.
Taiwan of course is watching a dominant military power invade and subdue its immediate neighbour, a neighbour with significant cultural and ethnic connections as well as a shared history. Social media is alight with the slogan “ Today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan”.
However the Taiwanese government is playing down the threat
Over the weekend Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen tweeted "Our country & people #StandWithUkraine against Russian aggression," along with photos of the iconic Taipei 101 skyscraper and cities across Taiwan lit up in the yellow and blue of the Ukrainian flag.
Meanwhile China has announced measures to assist Russia to beat western sanctions, and Xi Jinping was on the phone to Vladimir Putin late last week to assure him China stands behind Russia.
Whether China continues to trade and invest as heavily in a country that will be severely hobbled by western sanctions remains to be seen.
In Tokyo, the pro-Ukrainian demonstrations were some of the largest in the region, and people are opening their wallets in support after the Ukrainian Embassy tweeted its bank account details.
Japan has confirmed it will permit Ukrainian refugees and Russians opposing the invasion into the country, and will also renew visas of Ukrainians in Japan who wish to stay. Both Japan and South Korea have supported calls in the west to cut Russian banking off from the SWIFT international payment system,
India and Pakistan have both highlighted the need for a de-escalation in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, while carefully avoiding blaming Russia for the violence.
As part of The QUAD, India disappointed its partners with a refusal to openly criticise Russia. At the UN, India abstained from a vote on a resolution that would have “deplored” Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.
According to the SIPRI, an estimated 23 percent of all Russian arms exports between 2016 to 2020 were to India, making up a hugely significant 49 percent of all Indian arms imports.
Late last year India received the first shipments of its Russian-made S-400 ground-to-air missile defence system, as well as a personal visit from Vladimir Putin. .
Analysts say India’s abstention at the UN Security Council vote pays heed to the large arms imports, but also to India’s more thoughtful position on political flare-ups involving the US, China, and Russia.
While the other QUAD nations were at the leading edge of sanctions against Russia, India continues to walk a fine line, even while drawing criticism from US President Joe Biden , who suggested "any nation that countenances Russia's naked aggression against Ukraine will be stained by association."
Biden says “consultation” with India over its stance on Ukraine is continuing.
Later this year, Russia's relations with ASEAN and the wider Asia-Pacific region will be put to the test internationally as Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to attend the ASEAN-related summits in Cambodia, and the Asia Pacific Economic Leaders' Meeting in Bangkok in November. These two major events should reveal exactly how Russia’s aggression against its neighbour is likely to impact on-going relationships between Moscow and Asian capitals.
-Asia Media Centre